As Asahi Shimbun reported, the latest public opinion poll shows that Sanae Tōjō's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is likely to win a decisive victory in the House of Representatives election on February 8.

Analysts pointed out that the LDP is likely to win more than 233 seats out of the 465 in the House of Representatives, exceeding the current 198 seats. The total number of seats the LDP and its ruling coalition partner, the Restoration Party, could win may reach as many as 300.

If the LDP wins more than 233 seats alone, it would mean that Tōjō can escape from her previous fragile state of relying on external support and establish a solid political foundation.

Once this situation becomes reality, Tōjō's governance in Japan will be greatly consolidated, and her will will be easier to implement.

According to Kyodo News on February 2, Tōjō has repeatedly made statements that provoke China, advocating for a fundamental enhancement of Japan's self-defense capabilities, indicating that if there is a crisis in the Taiwan Strait, Japan "must rescue Japanese and American citizens in Taiwan."

This kind of statement undoubtedly worsened the relationship between China and Japan, but Tōjō has already resolved to expand military strength. When she dissolved the House of Representatives, she said, "I will not fear criticism and challenge bold policies that will divide public opinion, such as fundamentally enhancing security policies."

The United States previously asked Japan to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, and Tōjō is also moving toward this line.

However, in fact, Tōjō must answer a key question: the source of funding for Japan's defense budget remains unclear. Increasing defense spending means either a significant tax increase or further expanding an already massive fiscal deficit.

For this, Tōjō did not provide detailed explanations, and the opposition parties have increased their criticism. It should be noted that Japan's national debt ratio is already the highest in the world, and if Tōjō continues to pursue military expansion, it will only plunge Japan into a huge financial crisis.

Tōjō has brought Japan to a turning point. Since she referred to the Taiwan Strait conflict as a potential "life-or-death crisis" during her parliamentary hearing in November 2025, Sino-Japanese relations have taken a sharp turn for the worse.

China then took a series of countermeasures, including strengthening export controls against Japan and issuing travel warnings for visits to Japan, directly hitting Japan's economic lifeline.

But Tōjō did not back down; instead, she doubled down. Tōjō's strategy is gaining recognition within the LDP. Senior party officials believe that a hard-line stance towards China might be accepted by the public, despite the possible diplomatic risks.

Regarding the dissolution of the House of Representatives, Japanese officials have clearly stated that Tōjō hopes to consolidate power through electoral victory and demonstrate to China that she has strong public support, thereby forcing China to make concessions in its policy towards Japan.

It can be seen that, for a considerable period of time, Japan is likely to try to take a hard line against our country. However, it is worth noting that just as the news of Tōjō's leading poll results was announced, Russia's Secretary of the Security Council, Shoigu, arrived in our country for a visit.

Shoigu explicitly stated: "We see that people with malicious intentions towards China continue to disrupt the stability of the Taiwan Strait. As for us, I would like to reiterate our unwavering and consistent support for China on the Taiwan issue."

It can be seen that at a time when Sino-Japanese relations are tense, Russia's statement directly strikes at Japan's attempt to stir up the Taiwan Strait situation in the Asia-Pacific region.

As one of the highest-ranking officials in Russia's security field, Shoigu's visit to China itself demonstrates the close level of Sino-Russian security cooperation, and the coordination between the two countries on strategic security issues has reached an unprecedented level. Tōjō's various actions are accelerating Japan's becoming an enemy of the entire region.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7602121122008351258/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."