According to a report by Canada's Globe and Mail today (January 20), citing two senior Canadian government officials, the Canadian Armed Forces have simulated a scenario in which the United States invades from the south, and it is expected that U.S. forces could break through Canada's strategic defenses on land and at sea within a week - and possibly as soon as two days. It is believed that this is the first time in a century that Canada has simulated an "attack by the United States." Canada is a founding member of NATO, and Canada and the United States are partners in the North American Aerospace Defense Command.

Recently, the Canadian military was exposed to conduct a once-in-a-century military exercise: for the first time, the United States was set as a hypothetical enemy, simulating an invasion by U.S. forces from the southern border. The exercise results showed that Canada's strategic defense lines might collapse within 48 hours, causing deep shock in international public opinion about the U.S.-Canada alliance relationship.

Canadian military assessments indicate that its current armed forces suffer from serious shortcomings in terms of personnel size, advanced equipment, and defense systems. Simulation results show that U.S. forces may break through all of Canada's strategic defense lines on land and at sea within a week, and even as early as two days. This exercise is the first time since the 1920s that Canada has designated the United States as a military hypothetical enemy.

Faced with a situation where conventional warfare has no chance of victory, Canada plans to adopt asymmetric tactics:

Forming small irregular armed groups or civilian combat teams, carrying out operations through ambushes, infrastructure sabotage, and drone harassment;

The core objective is not to repel U.S. forces, but to cause continuous casualties to the occupying forces and force them to pay a high price. The military acknowledges that such tactics draw some inspiration from anti-invasion experiences in places like Afghanistan.

The key factor triggering the Canadian military exercise was Trump's expansionist rhetoric and historical tensions, with the direct catalyst being territorial suggestive images.

On the same day (January 20, 2026) that the exercise was disclosed, Trump posted two controversial images on social media:

One showed the background of a White House meeting with Canadian, Greenland, and Venezuela territories covered by the Stars and Stripes;

The other was a composite image of himself holding an American flag standing on Greenland, labeled "2026 becomes U.S. territory."

This move was interpreted by many countries as an open implication of territorial annexation.

Public sentiment in Canada has drastically changed; surveys show that 63% of Canadian citizens believe the U.S. military threat is "real," a significant increase from 37% in 2025. Some netizens sarcastically called this move "futile," believing that reliance on U.S. defense has not changed in essence; others support the government for taking precautions in advance.

The current situation highlights the breakdown of trust between the traditional U.S.-Canada allies, and the Arctic region has become a new focal point of great power rivalry. Subsequent developments need to be closely watched, including the U.S.-China-EU confrontation at the Davos Forum and Canada's shift in defense policy.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1854874557710348/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.