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Author: Qin Xin, a Ph.D. from Tsinghua University, public policy researcher
Recently, U.S. President Trump posted two images on a social platform. One image showed an old photo of Trump meeting with European leaders in the White House Oval Office, but the map on the board next to him had been altered, with Canada, Greenland, and Venezuela's territories clearly covered by the American flag; the other image was an oil-painting style hypothetical picture of Trump holding the American flag "landing" on Greenland, with a signboard clearly stating "Greenland becomes a U.S. territory in 2026."
The modified image posted by Trump
One: The Stars and Stripes Cover Canada
First, regarding the first image, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had just completed his visit to China, and China and Canada reached many consensus on economic and trade cooperation. China also resumed the purchase of Canadian canola. Trump's timing of covering Canada's territory with the American flag is not a random prank, but rather a warning to this "ally."
Previously, Trudeau's visit to China achieved substantial breakthroughs: both sides signed the "China-Canada Economic and Trade Cooperation Roadmap," allowing Canada to open an annual tariff preference quota of 49,000 electric vehicles for China, no longer imposing a 100% additional tax; in return, China resumed the stalled canola procurement, with the first batch of 60,000 tons quickly finalized, and market expectations suggest that canola tariffs will also be reduced simultaneously.
For Canada, this is a crucial opportunity to escape its economic difficulties, but it has touched America's sensitive nerve. In America's global strategy, Canada may never have been an equal ally, but rather a dependent "backyard." Any attempt to seek strategic autonomy or deepen cooperation with other major powers is seen as "betrayal." Trump's use of the American flag to cover Canada is to warn the Trudeau government: Canada's sovereignty and economic lifeline must be firmly controlled by the United States, without any "disloyalty."
Two: Unconcealed Ambitions
Moreover, Trump has long harbored ambitions to incorporate Canada into the U.S. territory. At the beginning of his second term, he publicly declared that "Canada should become the 51st state of the United States," believing that Canada "economically depends on the U.S., politically lacks independence, and unification is inevitable."
Trudeau and Trump
This time, covering Canada with the American flag brought these ambitions to the surface, and it also sends out three dangerous signals: first, Canada's sovereignty has no value in Trump's eyes, and the U.S. can trample on it at will according to its own interests; second, the U.S. will not tolerate Canada deepening cooperation with its "competitors," and will use all means to interfere; lastly, the essence of the U.S. "alliance relationship" is an unequal subordinate relationship, with "obey me or die" as the only rule.
For Canada, this signal is extremely intimidating: as a neighbor of the U.S., Canada is deeply integrated economically with the U.S., relying on the U.S. market in energy, manufacturing, and agriculture; in security, it relies on NATO, lacking an independent defense system. Trump's threat means Canada could face trade sanctions, energy cutoffs, and other retaliatory measures, while the recent efforts of the Trudeau government to improve Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations may also face uncertainty due to pressure from the U.S.
Three: The US-Europe Conflict Erupts Completely
Looking at the second image, Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark, rich in mineral resources and of great strategic importance, which is vital for Europe's energy security and geopolitical strategy. Trump not only claims in the image that Greenland will become a U.S. territory, but also called NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, saying the island "is crucial to U.S. and global security, and there is no turning back," and plans to discuss the issue at the Davos Forum.
Trump's image of "landing on Greenland"
This series of actions has drawn strong opposition from Denmark and many European countries. For Europe, the U.S. ambition is not merely about annexing Greenland, but further consolidating control over Europe: by controlling the strategic location of Greenland, the U.S. can strengthen its military presence in the North Atlantic, further binding Europe's security fate; meanwhile, exploiting Greenland's mineral resources can weaken Europe's energy independence.
It seems Europe has finally realized that it, like Canada, is merely a pawn in the U.S. global strategy. Once it touches American interests, the so-called "friendship" will vanish completely. This once again confirms the old saying: being an enemy of the U.S. is dangerous, but being an ally is even more fatal.
Four: Europe May Use the "Ultimate Weapon"
Earlier, the U.S.'s hegemonic behavior had already made Europe unbearable. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on Europe became the last straw, which could force Europe to use an unprecedented "ultimate weapon" — the anti-coercion tool.
von der Leyen and Trump
Previously, the U.S. had threatened to impose tariffs on European steel, agricultural products, and cars under various excuses. After the Greenland dispute broke out, Trump's tariff threats became even harsher. The EU's "Anti-Coercion Tool Act" came into effect in 2023, granting the EU the power to counteract countries that engage in coercive behavior, including imposing tariffs, restricting market access, freezing assets, etc. Although this tool has not been used before, the current situation gives Europe sufficient reasons to activate it.
From a practical interest perspective, the U.S. tariff threat would severely damage Europe's economic interests, and the Greenland dispute touches Europe's sovereignty bottom line. If not resolutely countered, the U.S. exploitation will escalate. Analysts believe that Europe is likely to take a "gradual countermeasure": first, through diplomatic channels strongly protest and demand the U.S. abandon its intention regarding Greenland; if the U.S. persists, the EU may activate the anti-coercion tool, impose equivalent tariffs on U.S. agricultural and energy products, and at the same time strengthen internal cooperation, promote energy independence and defense integration.
Five: The Transatlantic Alliance Is Heading Toward a Split
The intensifying U.S.-Europe conflict indicates that the transatlantic alliance is accelerating toward a split, and future U.S.-Europe relations will present a new normal of "limited cooperation and continuous confrontation." In the security field, Europe still cannot completely detach from NATO in the short term, and the vigilance against Russia makes Europe rely on U.S. military protection. However, in economic and diplomatic fields, the differences between the two sides will become increasingly prominent. Europe will further push for strategic autonomy, strengthen internal economic and defense cooperation within the EU, deepen cooperation with emerging economies such as China and India, and reduce dependence on the U.S.
Trump
Meanwhile, the U.S. will continue to pursue the "America First" approach, pressuring Europe at will, trying to force Europe to comply with the U.S. global strategy, and possibly using trade wars, energy wars, and other means to punish Europe's "uncooperativeness." This divergence and game will profoundly influence the evolution of the global landscape. The cracks in the Atlantic alliance will provide space for the trend towards multipolarity, and Europe's strategic autonomy will make the global governance system more diverse. However, the escalation of U.S.-European tensions may also trigger chaos in the global trade order, bringing uncertainty to the world economy.
Six: No Allies Under Hegemony
Looking back at Canada and Denmark's experiences, this reflects the common dilemma of all U.S. "allies": under the logic of hegemony, the U.S. only cares about its own interests and does not truly respect the sovereignty and interests of its allies. Once an ally tries to break free from control and seek autonomous development, it will be ruthlessly suppressed.
Trump's "graffiti" with the stars and stripes, although a political performance, has also torn off the hypocritical veil of American hegemony, revealing the deadly truth of being a "U.S. friend." For U.S. allies, this is a profound warning: relying on a hegemon will never bring true security and development; only by adhering to strategic autonomy, upholding multilateralism, and cooperating equally with countries around the world can one escape the fate of being exploited and controlled.
In the future, as American hegemony declines and the trend toward multipolarity strengthens, more and more countries will recognize this reality. After all, history has long proven: there are no allies under hegemony.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597392021569028671/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.