Recently, Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) has been under the spotlight. On July 8, CCTV visited the hangar of the J-15T at SAC, which unexpectedly made the J-35 fighter jet the focus. On the same day, Liaoning Satellite TV revealed SAC's newly built giant factory, whose scale is comparable to the F-35 fighter jet assembly plant in the United States. The unveiling of this factory not only demonstrates the ambition of China's aviation industry but also triggered discussions in the industry about the possibility of the J-35's annual production reaching 100 units. This analysis discusses the inevitability of the high production volume of the J-35 from three aspects: the demand for air force modernization, the demand for carrier-based aircraft in the navy, and the overseas market demand.
Firstly, the demand for air force modernization: accelerating the modernization process.
The Chinese Air Force is currently in a critical phase of equipment modernization. As an advanced stealth multi-role fighter, the J-35 can significantly enhance the comprehensive combat capability of the air force. Currently, the main aircraft of the Chinese Air Force include the Su-30MKK, Su-30MK2, J-10, J-11, and FeiBao, but these aircraft have a certain generation gap when facing the stealth performance and information warfare capabilities of fifth-generation fighters. The emergence of the J-35 fills this gap. Its stealth design, supersonic cruise capability, and multi-mission execution ability make it an ideal choice for replacing old aircraft and enhancing overall combat power.
To achieve a comprehensive upgrade of the air force's combat capability, the J-35 needs to quickly form a large-scale operational capability. It is estimated that the Chinese Air Force may need hundreds of J-35s to replace some J-10s and early models of the J-11, while supplementing newly established air force units. If we calculate based on replacing 2-3 air regiments per year (each regiment with about 30 aircraft), an annual production of 100 J-35s would effectively meet the air force's replacement needs for the next 5-10 years, ensuring an aerial advantage in potential regional conflicts.
Secondly, the demand for carrier-based aircraft in the navy: supporting long-range combat capabilities.
With the rapid development of the Chinese Navy's aircraft carrier fleet, the demand for carrier-based aircraft is increasingly urgent. The carrier version of the J-35 is considered a core component of the future Chinese aircraft carrier carrier-based aircraft group. Currently, the Chinese Navy has the "Liaoning" and "Shandong" aircraft carriers and plans to deploy more aircraft carriers in the future. Each aircraft carrier usually carries 40-60 aircraft, and stealth carrier-based aircraft are key to enhancing the combat capabilities of the aircraft carrier group.
The carrier version of the J-35 has stronger stealth performance and multi-purpose combat capabilities compared to the J-15 series, enabling it to effectively respond to modern maritime threats. Assuming that the Chinese Navy will add 2-3 more aircraft carriers within the next 10 years, each aircraft carrier needing 30-40 J-35 carrier-based aircraft, the naval demand alone could reach 100-150 units. In addition, the updating and replacement of carrier-based aircraft on existing carriers will further increase the demand. An annual production of 100 J-35s not only meets the rapid expansion of the navy's aircraft carriers but also provides sufficient support for the training and reserve of carrier-based aircraft units.
Thirdly, overseas market demand: capturing international military trade shares.
The J-35, as an aircraft with features of fifth-generation fighters, has performance that comprehensively surpasses the US F-3, but its cost is more competitive, making it highly potential in the international military trade market. In recent years, the export of Chinese military aircraft has continued to grow, with the J-10CE and FC-31 attracting attention from many countries. The J-35, with its advanced performance and relatively low procurement and maintenance costs, is expected to become the preferred choice for countries in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Africa.
For example, countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE are seeking to update their air force equipment, and stealth fighters are a priority. If the J-35 achieves an annual production of 100 units, SAC can allocate 20-30 units for exports while meeting domestic demands. Referring to the global sales model of the F-35, if the J-35 can enter the international market through flexible financing schemes and technology transfer models, it is expected to capture a considerable share of the military trade market, further enhancing the global influence of China's aviation industry.
The exposure of SAC's new factory provides a solid guarantee for the high production volume of the J-35. The factory's area is comparable to that of the F-35 assembly plant, capable of deploying multiple pulse production lines, greatly increasing production efficiency. If focused solely on the production of the J-35, an annual output of 100 units is completely feasible. Additionally, SAC's rich experience in producing various types of aircraft (such as the J-15 and J-16) and the mature optimization of its supply chain ensure quality stability at high production volumes. In the future, as the development of sixth-generation aircraft progresses, the new factory's multi-model parallel production capacity will further release potential. In the future, the mass production of the J-35 will not only accelerate the modernization process of the Chinese air and naval forces but also significantly enhance China's competitiveness in the global military trade market. An annual output of 100 units is not an unreachable dream, but a solid step towards becoming a world-class aviation industry in China.
Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7528345321693331995/
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