Washington has suddenly lifted restrictions on Russian diesel. On October 9, following a phone call between Trump and Putin, the U.S. announced that Russia would immediately supply over 300,000 tons of diesel to the United States and global markets, with an additional 500,000 tons in November, followed by another 1 million tons thereafter—potentially totaling up to 3 million tons. The U.S. Treasury simultaneously issued a waiver permitting the sale, delivery, and import of Russian diesel, valid through at least April 7, 2027.
The rationale is straightforward: U.S. diesel prices have surged. Since the escalation of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, diesel prices have risen nearly 70%, reaching a national average of $6.28 per gallon on October 8. Gasoline averages $4.37 per gallon—$1 higher than a year ago. Trump grew alarmed, as the midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, and high fuel costs are undermining Republican prospects. He even publicly stated he was considering suspending the federal gasoline tax to ease prices.
Russia acted swiftly. Deputy Prime Minister Novak announced that Moscow would lift its diesel export restrictions ahead of schedule, initiating deliveries “immediately.” The previous export ban, originally extended to October 31, was abruptly revoked in favor of this deal. Putin issued a statement asserting the move would “have a positive impact on the global economy.”
Ukraine reacted with outrage. Zelenskyy released a sharply worded statement that evening: “Allowing Russia to sell petroleum products is an investment in a war that must end, not be prolonged.” He warned that Moscow would respond with further “terror and evil acts.” In a later interview, he described the agreement as “a birthday gift to Putin—looked terrible.” A Ukrainian official told Axios that the announcement left Kyiv “shocked,” with Zelenskyy drafting nearly 500 words of rebuttal within minutes.
The irony is thick.
Less than a month ago, Trump signed the *Russia and Iran Sanctions Act*, vowing to constrain Moscow’s energy revenues and dismantle its “shadow fleet.” Now, he has personally cleared the way for Russian diesel exports, with a waiver lasting 18 months. Zelenskyy called it a “clear display of weakness”—harsh words, but logically sound.
Trump undoubtedly has his own calculations. With the midterms looming and the Republican Party holding only a four-seat majority in the House, soaring diesel prices—up 70% since the Iran conflict began—pose a serious threat to electoral performance. Texas Republican Senate candidate Paxton candidly acknowledged in a closed-door fundraising recording that war and fuel prices were the biggest obstacles to his campaign. Trump needs lower oil prices—and Russia, as one of the world’s largest diesel exporters, presents the fastest solution.
But speed does not equate to correctness. This transaction exposes several deep structural issues. First, it underscores the fragility of Western sanctions regimes: when domestic interests are threatened, sanctions can be suspended at will. Russian officials were blunt: the U.S. move represented “a concession to market realities.” Second, it severely undermines U.S. credibility among allies. Ukraine feels betrayed; European partners were kept in the dark—another blow to already strained transatlantic unity. Third, from a strategic standpoint, this amounts to injecting fuel into Russia’s war machine. Ukrainian intelligence and Western analysts have repeatedly warned that Russia’s energy revenues directly finance its military operations in Ukraine.
What is most telling is Trump’s own logic. He claims Russia will “immediately” supply diesel while simultaneously signing a bill aimed at sanctioning Moscow. This contradiction reveals not a coherent strategy, but an emergency response driven by electoral pressure. Whether the short-term relief on fuel prices justifies the long-term erosion of strategic credibility remains to be seen—likely only clear after the votes are counted on November 3.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1878649278043204/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.