According to an article from Asia Times on October 17, the Japanese government is experiencing a false change of leadership.

Although Takayuki Higashikokubaru won the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election, it remains uncertain whether he will be able to become the prime minister due to the withdrawal of the Komeito Party.

This has led to two prominent candidates for prime minister in Japan: besides Takayuki Higashikokubaru, there is also Yūichirō Tamaki from the Constitutional Democratic Party.

But regardless of which of these two individuals ultimately becomes the prime minister, it makes no difference for Japan, as both have economic policies that cling to Abenomics without any new ideas.

The article points out that this superficial change conceals the actual stagnation of Japan's economic policy.

From Shinzo Abe to Shigeru Ishiba, and now to Higashikokubaru and Tamaki, every leader has played the same script with different faces: continue to increase quantitative easing, maintain currency depreciation, and preserve investor confidence, while never addressing deep structural reforms.

The underlying logic is to stabilize the political interests of the politicians. Therefore, no matter who becomes the prime minister in the future, Japan will find it difficult to bring about a real economic shift.

Moreover, the faster the leadership changes, the less likely the policy will change, until the market completely loses confidence in Japan's transformation.

Shinzo Abe and Takayuki Higashikokubaru

The so-called Abenomics was originally a set of three-pronged economic stimulus strategies, including large-scale monetary easing, active fiscal policy, and structural reform.

However, in reality, only the first two arrows were actually shot: quantitative easing and debt-fueled spending.

The most important reform—addressing population aging, reforming the labor market, and breaking the corporate governance stalemate—has almost never been implemented.

Even during Abe's tenure, this strategy only briefly boosted the stock market and corporate profits, but did not bring about substantive growth or improvements in productivity.

Japan's actual GDP annual growth rate remained around 1% during Abe's term, far below the slogan of recovery.

Moreover, Japanese households' actual disposable income has shrunk in the context of inflation, and issues such as labor market rigidity, declining innovation, and insufficient foreign investment have not shown significant improvement.

More seriously, this policy has deeply entangled the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance in a quagmire of massive debt, leaving the government with almost no space to exit from the easing measures.

Therefore, subsequent leaders had no choice but to continue using the banner of Abenomics, because they couldn't turn back. Even if it became a burden, subsequent leaders would unconsciously carry it forward.

Yūichirō Tamaki

At a time when Abe has already left, the Japanese political arena is still continuing in a spiritualistic way, which is a strange phenomenon.

This exposes the helplessness of Japanese politicians. They are not genuinely believing that Abenomics still has magical power, but rather they can't find an alternative script.

If you negate the Abe line, it means overturning the political legitimacy of an entire era, and it also means that the current politicians must propose their own economic strategy.

The reality is that they lack sufficient authority and new ideas, so they can only pretend to believe and continue down the already shaky old path.

Furthermore, this ritualistic inheritance of Abe also facilitates the distribution of power within factions: as long as you are willing to acknowledge yourself as a successor to the Abe line, even if your actions are merely copying the budget, you can still gain support within the party and votes.

For example, Takayuki Higashikokubaru, whose main label is an Abe disciple.

This has created a ridiculous situation: everyone clearly knows that this policy is no longer effective, but no one is willing to be the first to point it out, because if you do, you won't be able to ascend to power.

Shinzo Abe

Therefore, this stubborn continuation is not intended to save Japan's economy, but to maintain political order.

In Japan, the Liberal Democratic Party, and even other parties, have transformed Abenomics into a tool of conservative monetarism: it no longer serves economic growth, but serves the stability of power.

The prime minister can keep changing, but Abenomics must remain.

So no one really expects Abenomics to revive Japan's economy; everyone just hopes it doesn't cause chaos.

And whenever problems arise, they will quickly ease up a bit more, print some more money, until the entire system is stabilized to the point of being uncontrollable.

This is the reality of Japanese politics: reform is on the lips, easing is in the hands, and responsibility is in the sky.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562413607217971712/

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