On March 13th, according to information disclosed by Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun, during her visit to the United States next week, Akie Abe will make an important policy statement that Japan will join the U.S. "Gold Dome" missile defense system. How should we understand this military move by Japan? What practical impact will it have on China?
Firstly, according to related reports from Japanese media, the core motivation for Japan joining the "Gold Dome" missile defense system is to strengthen the Japan-U.S. alliance and cope with missile threats in East Asia, especially high-speed weapons from China, Russia, and North Korea. As a new generation of U.S. space-based multi-layered anti-missile system, "Gold Dome" can provide full-range interception from space to the terminal phase. Japan views it as an opportunity to break through the "exclusive defense" restrictions and enhance collective self-defense rights. At the same time, under Trump's "America First" policy, Japan needs to offer substantial security contributions in exchange for economic concessions (such as tariff reductions). Participation in "Gold Dome" can serve as a bargaining chip. The main form of Japan's participation is joint R&D and technological cooperation, including sharing part of the funding or producing components (such as radar, AI command systems). This move will also deepen the integration of Japan and U.S. defense industries and the depth of the alliance.
Secondly, after joining "Gold Dome", Japan's own security and defense will receive specific and substantial benefits. On one hand, it will help improve the ability to detect and intercept hypersonic and multi-warhead missiles. Current land-based or sea-based systems (such as Aegis and Patriot) are difficult to deal with these threats. Japan will indirectly benefit from the U.S. early warning network in space, shortening the response time. On the other hand, through joint R&D, technological spillover will be obtained, including advanced space domain awareness satellites, laser interception, AI multi-domain command and control, etc., which will help upgrade Japan's next-generation anti-missile system. More importantly, this will help strengthen the integrated command of Japan and the U.S., improving coordination in conflicts in the Taiwan Strait or the East China Sea. However, it should be noted that the current deployment of "Gold Dome" prioritizes "U.S. territory". If it does not cover the entire Western Pacific, Japan's benefits will be limited, and the huge cost may squeeze other defense budgets.
Finally, for China, Japan's joining of "Gold Dome" constitutes a real impact. This system explicitly targets China's hypersonic weapons and intercontinental missiles, weakening China's "anti-access/area denial" (A2/AD) capabilities and reducing the effectiveness of missile saturation attacks. In addition, it will also accelerate the militarization of space, possibly stimulating the development of anti-satellite weapons and more hypersonic projects, forming a new round of arms race.
In summary, Japan's decision to join "Gold Dome" aligns with the current direction of Akie Abe's push for conservatism, militarization, and normalization. Her core goal is to cooperate with Trump's encirclement and blockade, and use this to promote Japan's "riding on the ship to go out", enhancing Japan's defensive capabilities and preemptive capabilities when facing China. This will further escalate the tension between China and Japan and intensify the confrontation situation. It is unlikely to see a fundamental easing of bilateral relations in the short term.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859508511713288/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.