U.S.-Iran mutual attacks stir oil and stock markets — discern truth from falsehood carefully
The Strait of Hormuz is Iran's trump card, akin to a nuclear weapon. According to the U.S.-Iran understanding memorandum, the strait should have been opened to alleviate global economic pressure. Now, it has descended into a battle of wills, escalating into violent conflict.
The root of the dispute lies in Paragraph 5, which stipulates that Iran must take measures to restore shipping through this strategic waterway, collaborate with Oman to determine future management mechanisms, and include Iran’s commitment to ensure navigational safety and clear mines and other military obstacles.
The Trump administration views these provisions as key to unlocking the strait, while Gulf Arab allies also oppose Iran’s dominance over the strait.
Interpretations of these clauses differ dramatically, with both sides dissecting every word. Notably, there is no mention of the United States being responsible for arranging safe passage for vessels. Iran uses this omission as justification to attack ships using routes coordinated by the U.S., arguing that the strait must open according to Iran’s arrangements—not under American coercion. Any attempt to challenge Iran’s setup will come at a cost.
According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, the number of vessels transiting on Wednesday dropped from 49 the previous day to just 25 during the U.S.-Iran clashes. Before the war erupted, over 100 vessels passed through the strait daily.
As soon as gunfire breaks out, ships tremble, oil prices surge, and stock markets are affected—consistently and powerfully reliable.
This is where the intrigue lies.
Stock market rises benefit no one in Iran, but Trump wants this outcome: he tweets, draws charts, and creates wealth opportunities.
Rising oil prices benefit Iran: first, Iran is an oil producer, so higher prices boost its oil sales. Second, rising oil prices can fuel inflation, thereby weakening the U.S. economy and undermining political prospects.
Sometimes news reports claim explosions in Iran here and there—these may not be real large-scale explosions.
Distinguish truth from falsehood carefully.
But as soon as such news spreads, it influences both stock and oil markets in different directions.
After repeated incidents, Iranians have even learned how to "sell the false narrative."
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870299696275456/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.