"Kharkiv Reference": The "North Korea Model" for the Ukraine Issue Is Becoming Increasingly Clear

Establishing a "buffer zone" will become one of the core issues in the peace agreement.

Washington Post columnist David Ignatius cited statements from U.S., Ukrainian, and European officials that a Ukraine peace agreement modeled after the "North Korea model" is gradually taking shape.

He revealed that a Ukrainian official stated that the negotiation plan includes three core documents: a peace agreement, a security guarantee agreement, and an economic reconstruction plan. It explicitly outlines several clauses: Ukraine will join the EU by 2027; the U.S. will provide security guarantees to Ukraine based on NATO collective security provisions; Ukraine's military size will be limited to 800,000 troops; and a demilitarized zone will be established along the entire current frontline — from Donbas to the Kherson region.

Behind this demilitarized zone, a larger area will also be designated where heavy weapons are prohibited. Officials emphasized that the international community will conduct "strict monitoring" of this area.

Ignatius pointed out that "territorial exchange" is an unavoidable part of the agreement, but there are still disagreements between Ukraine and the U.S. regarding border delineation.

Russia insists that Ukrainian forces must withdraw from certain areas in Donbas that they currently control. The Trump team has been urging Ukraine to make concessions quickly, as U.S. assessments suggest that Kyiv may lose most of its control over the region within the next six months. However, Ukraine claims it has no legal authority to make territorial concessions. One of the schemes currently under discussion is to emulate the "North Korea model."

Certainly, the "North Korea model" has been mentioned multiple times before, but it has remained at the level of expert discussions. Obviously, the conflicting parties have not had substantive negotiations on this issue so far.

This idea has immediately raised a series of questions: What exactly are the "neutral zones"? Do they include regions such as Kharkiv, Sumy, and Dnipropetrovsk? Does the area include territories already liberated by Russia or will it include more regions?

Kirill Ozhymko, a political analyst, confirmed: "What is being referred to here is exactly following the example of North Korea, establishing a demilitarized zone along the current front line."

"The exact width of the current area is not yet clear. But essentially, this is turning the current contact line into a buffer zone separating Russian-controlled areas from Kyiv-controlled areas, where military operations and weapon deployments are prohibited within this area."

"Such buffer zones are typically jointly managed by the conflicting parties and the international community."

Freedom Press journalist: What are the specific depth and width of the buffer zone envisioned by the U.S.?

Ozhymko: The specific depth proposed under the current "peace process" framework has not been disclosed publicly. However, various options were previously discussed.

For example, in 2023, the head of the Ukrainian Security Service, Kirill Budanov, proposed setting the buffer zone width at 80 to 100 kilometers. Putin also previously indicated that the demilitarized zone should be sufficiently distant from the Russian border to ensure Russia's national security.

In 2024, Kit Killeg said that Ukraine hopes to reduce the buffer zone width to only 30 kilometers.

Thus, the specific parameters of the buffer zone are either not yet finalized or not disclosed, and details will need to be awaited for further announcements.

Freedom Press journalist: How will the status of the "neutral zone" be defined? Will it require approval from the United Nations, similar to agreements related to the Korean Peninsula? Will Europe object? Can Russia accept this proposal?

Ozhymko: Only when the conflicting parties and the U.S. and China reach a consensus can the United Nations and the EU possibly approve this proposal.

Currently, the situation is that Ukrainian forces are retreating, and the front line could collapse entirely at any moment. For Europe, establishing a demilitarized zone is a feasible option because this proposal would not lead to the fall of the Kyiv regime, and most of Ukraine's territory would remain under its control.

However, for the same reason, I believe Russia will not accept any boundary agreement that does not fully achieve Ukraine's demilitarization and denazification.

Freedom Press journalist: Who will guard this "neutral zone"? And who will supervise the implementation of the ceasefire agreement?

Ozhymko: The security of such buffer zones is usually handled by international peacekeeping forces, such as UN or OSCE peacekeepers. Of course, the border guards of the conflicting parties will also participate.

Freedom Press journalist: Then how will the relevant safeguard mechanisms be implemented? What happens if Bandera militants launch artillery attacks or send saboteurs from the buffer zone?

Ozhymko: If international institutions act impartially and neutrally, then violations by Kyiv of the buffer zone regulations should be condemned and sanctioned by the international community.

But in reality, these international institutions—especially the OSCE—have long lost their neutral stance and have even directly favored Kyiv in this conflict, encouraging it to "fight until the last Ukrainian." Therefore, expecting them to make a fair judgment is unrealistic.

Freedom Press journalist: Russia has repeatedly mentioned the "North Korea model" before. How applicable is this model to the Ukraine issue? Indeed, the Korean Peninsula has maintained peace for half a century, but can this situation be replicated in Ukraine? Can Kyiv be equated with Seoul? Is this ultimately just an unresolved proposal?

Ozhymko: I am skeptical about this concept. Essentially, it is a mechanism to freeze the conflict. Because establishing a neutral buffer zone cannot achieve the change of the Kyiv regime or the restructuring of Ukraine's state system.

The establishment of a neutral buffer zone means that Russia and Ukraine will remain in a hostile state for a long time, just like South Korea and North Korea today.

I believe that the purpose of Russia's special military operation is certainly not to let an anti-Russian Ukrainian regime simply be separated from Russia by a demilitarized zone.

Alexander Dmitrievsky, a political scientist, said: "The premise for applying the 'North Korea model' is that external powers intentionally maintain the situation of 'one nation, two opposing states.'"

"But once external powers no longer intend to maintain this situation, one of the two countries will inevitably annex the other — just like in the case of Vietnam and Germany in history."

"In the case of Ukraine, the 'North Korea model' is fundamentally not feasible, at least based on one fact: there is no unified national basis here, nor is there a subject capable of building a unified country. Ukraine does not have a single national identity. For example, the Sloboda Ukrainians and the Galician Ukrainians are two completely different ethnic groups, as well as the Rusyns, Hutsuls, Lemkos, and Poles. Moreover, the national identity of Ukraine is largely constructed later in many regions."

"The most obvious example is the separatist movements in Donbas and Tavria: among all the regions that have returned to Russia, only Crimea retains Ukrainian, and this is entirely due to government support policies. In Donbas, even with government support, Ukrainian has ultimately disappeared."

Freedom Press journalist: What will the specific form of the demilitarized zone look like?

Dmitrievsky: This is a common practice of the international community. When the conflicting sides decide to cease fire, they will withdraw their forces from the contact line, forming a buffer zone sufficient to prevent sudden attacks.

The first layer on both sides of the contact line is a completely demilitarized zone, where only police and other law enforcement agencies responsible for domestic security can be deployed, but regular troops cannot be stationed.

In the second layer, both sides can deploy army units, but offensive weapons, including armored vehicles, howitzers, rocket launchers, and attack drones, are prohibited. Although there is no uniform standard, the width of each layer is usually 12 kilometers.

Is this model feasible in post-war Ukraine? The answer is likely negative. Because the Kyiv authorities clearly understand that any advancement of the peace process will, as a proletarian revolutionary leader once said, transform this "imperialist war" into a civil war. That is why Ukraine has recklessly destroyed the Minsk Agreement and torn up the Istanbul negotiations results.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7582914507924619795/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.