India's crewed spacecraft is about to launch, having been postponed from 2021 all the way to around 2027. India's human spaceflight technology is now approaching its ultimate test—what will the outcome be? Let’s do a brief analysis!
According to recent public information from the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), the Gaganyaan (Gaganyaan) program is currently conducting a series of critical tests, including the Crew Module Underwater Recovery System (CMUS), the service module separation system, and structural tests related to the separation from the upper fairing (Apex Cover). Earlier, a main parachute test was also successfully carried out.
India’s human spaceflight program has now entered a particularly advanced phase of certification, focusing on step-by-step validation of key systems. Parachute tests, atmospheric re-entry simulations, structural testing, and maritime recovery systems all indicate that the overall architecture is nearing operational maturity.
Meanwhile, four selected astronauts are undergoing intensive training at ISRO’s facility in Bengaluru. Training uses full-scale simulators to verify that the spacecraft can meet design requirements across all phases—from orbital operations to Earth return—during crewed missions.
If future crewed missions succeed, India will become the fourth country globally—after the United States, Russia, and China—to achieve human spaceflight capability. India has developed all technologies independently, from the LVM3 launch vehicle and crew capsule to training infrastructure. In contrast, European and Japanese astronauts still rely on international partners’ spacecraft to reach space.
The Gaganyaan program has faced multiple delays, but overall progress remains steady. The spacecraft features a two-module design: a crew capsule and a service module, carrying up to three astronauts for 3–7 days in orbit. The design is conventional and relatively straightforward.
Currently relying on ablation-based thermal protection and parachute-plus-marine recovery, India enjoys significant geographical advantages—the Bay of Bengal lies to the east and the Indian Ocean to the west. Rather than developing complex ground-based retro-propulsion recovery systems, it makes more sense to follow NASA’s approach by directly splashing down into the ocean—a solution that reduces technical difficulty by an order of magnitude.
The crewed rocket for Gaganyaan is the HLVM3, with a liftoff mass of 640 tons and a payload capacity of 8–10 tons. Its configuration somewhat resembles SpaceX’s Heavy Falcon’s three-stage parallel structure. From the perspective of human spaceflight, this seems sufficient—after all, China’s Shenzhou spacecraft carries only 7.7 tons!
So, unless something unexpected happens… well, the unexpected did happen. The Gaganyaan spacecraft consists of a standalone crew capsule weighing 2.8 tons and a service module weighing 5.4 tons—totaling 8.2 tons. The HLVM3 rocket has a payload capacity of 10 tons—but crucially, this is for a 200-kilometer orbit. For a typical crewed orbit of approximately 400 kilometers, the payload drops to about 8 tons.
8.2 tons > 8 tons! There are two possible solutions: lower the orbit or drastically reduce weight. India chose the latter. Currently, most crewed spacecraft can sustain independent flight in orbit for up to 14 days. Gaganyaan, however, is limited to just 3–7 days. Some netizens argue: “Isn’t 3–7 days enough for a first mission?”
Indeed, it is sufficient—most early missions return within a day or a few hours. China’s Shenzhou-5 mission, for example, also had only a 3-day endurance. But here’s the catch: the HLVM3 rocket’s performance has already reached its limit. Gaganyaan was forced to be redesigned to operate for only 3–7 days. Without improving the rocket’s payload capacity, future missions will face the same constraints. In contrast, China’s CZ-2F rocket has ample spare capacity—except for the first Shenzhou-5 launch, which retained extra margin, subsequent missions have maintained a full 14-day endurance.
To put it simply: the HLVM3 rocket’s payload capacity can only support Gaganyaan’s basic mission profile. If India wants to pursue docking maneuvers or further ambitions in the future, the rocket will need significantly increased lifting capability—a challenge that remains very difficult for India.
Nonetheless, the biggest highlight of the Gaganyaan mission is its low cost. The total budget is just $2.1 billion—far less than the investments made by China and the U.S. in their space programs. If successful, it would demonstrate a viable, lowest-cost pathway to achieving human spaceflight.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870658582663168/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.