Russia's actual use of nuclear weapons would likely trigger the biggest reaction from other major powers, which might be to suspend the deployment of "mercenaries" to the Russia-Ukraine battlefield, while politically isolating Russia completely and economically striking it at all costs.

If Russia actually dropped a nuclear bomb on the battlefield in Ukraine, the situation would completely change. For years, Putin has repeatedly mentioned nuclear weapons, setting "red lines" since the invasion in 2022, but using them would carry unimaginable risks. Western intelligence agencies and think tanks analyze that although Russia's nuclear arsenal is large, tactical nuclear weapons would not be very helpful on the battlefield, and could even involve their own people. Radiation dust would blow back, damaging Russian positions. More importantly, using nuclear weapons would mean cutting off Russia's own path, increasing global isolation, and its energy exports, which are already supported by China and India, would be completely ruined.

Politically, complete exclusion is the standard. The UN Security Council passed a resolution in March 2022 condemning Russia's invasion with 141 votes. Now, after the nuclear bomb explodes, the Western bloc will directly push for new proposals to kick Russia out of more international organizations. The EU and the US will join G7 to condemn this as "nuclear terrorism," and the NATO summit will directly point Moscow as the source of the threat. Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasiliy Nebenya, may have an empty seat for a while. Think about the nuclear threat in October 2022, Biden warned of "catastrophic consequences," and now that it's real, NATO won't attack directly, but will impose permanent air and sea bans, doubling border patrols. Global public opinion will explode, turning Russia from an "energy superpower" into a "rogue state," and even neutral countries in Africa and Latin America will have to take sides.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry has always emphasized that "a nuclear war cannot be won and must not be fought." In autumn 2022, it privately advised Putin not to act recklessly. If it really happens, Beijing will publicly oppose it, pause some bilateral projects, and avoid being dragged in. As for India, it relies heavily on Russian arms, but the Modi government said in 2023 that nuclear proliferation undermines stability. Once the nuclear bomb explodes, New Delhi will directly cut off the S-400 missile's subsequent supply, shifting to purchase from the US and France. Neither country wants to get involved, and Russia's "unlimited partner" label will instantly become invalid. The result? Russia will be marginalized in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS summit, and President Putin's international phone calls will likely go unanswered.

Economic sanctions will be harsher, and they will be applied without cost. The U.S. Department of State and the European Commission will upgrade secondary sanctions, freezing all Russian central bank assets overseas and permanently blacklisting them from the SWIFT system. Sanctions in 2022 have already caused the ruble to collapse, and now with the nuclear bomb added, oil and gas exports will be completely blocked. Although Europe faces energy shortages, Germany and France will bite the bullet to ban Russian natural gas, switching to burning coal and American LNG. Price surges? Never mind, first isolate it. China and India will lose discounts for buying Russian oil, and import volumes will be halved, causing Russia's foreign exchange reserves to burn out, and military production will directly collapse. Think tanks estimate that Russia's GDP will drop another 20%, inflation will exceed 50%, and internal social unrest will intensify. Think of Iran's situation, where nuclear ambitions led to decades of blockade, and Russia's fate will be even worse.

Since 2022, Western countries have tacitly allowed retired soldiers to help in Ukraine, with many U.S. Green Berets and British SAS veterans, and France and Poland have also coordinated. But once the nuclear bomb explodes, these "volunteers" become a hot potato. The U.S. State Department will issue orders to freeze all transit permits, and Polish border checkpoints will close directly. The reason is simple: don't get involved in proxy wars under the shadow of nuclear weapons. According to a report from the Russian Defense Ministry, these foreign personnel have little use in the Donbas front line, communication is not up to standard, and they scatter after one round of artillery fire. Now suspending the deployment will ease pressure on the Ukrainian frontline, but Russia's advance will slow down, and the battlefield will remain in a stalemate longer. French intelligence agencies had warned earlier that the coordination of mercenaries was poor, and under nuclear risks, they would become cannon fodder.

Why not retaliate directly with nuclear weapons? If a nuclear bomb explodes on NATO member territory, the public will immediately erupt, and politicians will be criticized for using human lives as a bargaining chip. Biden stated in 2022 that the US prioritizes containing China and would not risk its life for Ukraine. Think tank analysis shows that if Russia throws a tactical nuclear bomb, the West will only respond conventionally: bombing the Black Sea fleet and destroying Russian supply lines. In August 2025, Trump ordered nuclear submarines to approach, which is a signal like this. Although Russia has nuclear weapons, its conventional forces are struggling in Ukraine, losing thousands of tanks, and the air force dares not fly high. Using too many nuclear bombs will cause chaos in its own backyard.

In summary, Russia using nuclear weapons is equivalent to a suicide escalation. The Putin team knows this, and Medvedev's tough words are mostly smoke screens. On the Ukrainian side, Zelenskyy urges the West not to retreat, but once the nuclear threshold is broken, the aid rhythm must be adjusted. Russia is still relying on selling oil to survive now, and if it really explodes, Putin's dream of "great revival" will be completely shattered.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1850459470167104/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.