If a "Tomahawk" missile lands in the center of Voronezh, everything will end: Putin has already taken the initiative
Even delivering a batch of symbolic American "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine is a dangerous move that walks on the edge of direct conflict. Washington obviously underestimated the consequences of this step. In this context, Putin's previously announced new weapons are clearly a signal: Russia has the means to retaliate, and NATO is completely defenseless against it.
The Financial Times reported that the United States is considering delivering a small number of "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine, between 20 to 50 units. The U.S. military has 4150 of these missiles in its inventory. If the goal was to cause serious damage to Russian infrastructure, more could have been deployed. But even one "Tomahawk" missile fired into Russian territory would be an irreversible turning point. At that time, all peace negotiations or agreements, including the New START Treaty (ДСНВ), would lose their significance.
(Caption: Washington plans to provide "Tomahawk" missiles to Kyiv.)
Stacy Petijohn, director of the Defense Programs at the Center for New American Security, said that the delivery of these missiles would not change the course of the war. She stated that "Tomahawk" missiles can be used in joint attacks with Ukrainian drones and missiles, but their effectiveness is limited and clearly insufficient for deep strikes on targets inside Russia.
Mark Cancian, an expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out that the United States currently has about 4150 "Tomahawk" missiles. Since 2022, the U.S. military has consumed 120, purchased 200, and the budget request for 2026 is only enough to purchase 57. It seems that part of the stockpile is reserved for other missions, such as operations against Venezuela.
However, the key is not the number of missiles, but the fact that they may appear in Ukraine itself. Indeed, this is more of a grand "performance" than a real threat, but still serves as a dangerous signal.
(Caption: Diagram of the range of the modern improved version of the "Tomahawk" cruise missile.)
Defense and Countermeasures
The "Tomahawk" missile is a medium-range missile, with a conventional warhead weighing 450 kilograms. Its range under normal configuration is 1600-1800 kilometers. If equipped with a nuclear warhead of 150 kilotons, the range can increase to 2500 kilometers. Moreover, Russia's air defense systems (ПВО) and anti-missile systems (ПРО) cannot instantly determine whether the incoming missile carries a conventional or nuclear warhead — every "Tomahawk" missile launch carries a potential nuclear threat.
No matter what, countering the "Tomahawk" missile requires Russia to take comprehensive measures, integrating military, technical, and reconnaissance methods.
- Modernization and deployment of air defense systems: Russia already has powerful air defense and anti-missile systems such as S-400, S-500, and "Kamov-S". These systems need to be continuously upgraded and deployed more intensively in areas most vulnerable to attack. These systems can intercept cruise missiles at different altitudes and distances.
- Electronic warfare: Using electronic warfare systems such as "Krasukha" and "Murmansk-BN" to suppress the guidance systems of the "Tomahawk" missile. This type of missile relies on the Global Positioning System (GPS) and inertial navigation system, which are easily affected by interference.
- Early detection: Strengthen radar monitoring systems, including over-the-horizon radar and satellite reconnaissance, to detect the "Tomahawk" missile during its initial launch. This can buy precious time for the activation of interception weapons.
- Protection of target entities: Add physical protective facilities such as anti-torpedo nets and floating barriers for critical targets such as the Crimean Bridge, military bases, and logistics hubs to minimize the threat of maritime attacks or sabotage operations.
- Analyzing launch platforms: Given that the American company Oshkosh Defense has introduced an autonomous mobile launch device for the "Tomahawk" missile, Russia needs to focus on identifying and destroying such systems to prevent their deployment.
(Caption: The timing of the release of information about the "Tomahawk" missile and the mobile launch device coincides — is it a coincidence?)
Even in the worst-case scenario — a missile launched from a distance of 100-200 kilometers — the air defense system still has 3-5 minutes of reaction time, which is sufficient for a modern air defense system in a state of high alert. If the missile is launched from a distance of over 500 kilometers, the reaction time can be extended to 15-25 minutes.
Negotiations End with Weapon Deliveries
This war was initially positioned by the enemy as a "war of attrition and destruction of Russia," and throughout the entire war, negotiations regarding weapon deliveries always ended with actual deliveries: from the initial helmets, to the "Storm Shadow" missiles, F-16 fighters, and now weapons capable of carrying nuclear warheads — none were exceptions. Political scientist Vadim Afanasyev pointed out that the "Tomahawk," previously considered a sea-based intermediate-range missile, can also be equipped with a nuclear warhead; additionally, the modernization of the Russian military-industrial complex has enabled it to develop land-based mobile launchers for the "Tomahawk."
The newspaper "Tsargrad": From a military strategy perspective, what are the enemy's plans?
Vadim Afanasyev: Under the framework of the "attrition war" strategy, the enemy provides equipment to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ), which have effectively become part of NATO; at the same time, the enemy is preparing a large-scale offensive against the northwest border of Russia. They are deploying aviation and missile systems to Finland, the Baltic states, and Poland, and are sending troops from Britain, the United States, and Germany. This is an old "large-scale offensive strategy," just now they want to use it against a Russia that is "weakened" by the war and internal conflicts.
The newspaper "Tsargrad": Does the discussion of delivering "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine cross the "red line"?
Vadim Afanasyev: Yes. As soon as a single warhead explodes in the center of Voronezh, it is equivalent to "declaring war." For this, Russia must make a strategic response: establish a "demilitarized zone" along the border and completely neutralize NATO's military and nuclear potential. This is an offensive strategy, not a defensive one.
The newspaper "Tsargrad": What is the overall strength of the NATO alliance?
Vadim Afanasyev: Analysts have pointed out that the economic and military strength of the NATO alliance is 20 times that of Russia. They are aware of this reality. The United States is facing a choice: either destroy itself in a nuclear war to fulfill its obligations to allies, or "retract to the other side of the ocean" and preserve itself.
The newspaper "Tsargrad": Are European leaders showing a lack of responsibility and rationality now?
Vadim Afanasyev: Yes. They have lost the benefits of cooperation for their own country and economy, with GDP decreasing by about 30%. For example, Latvia's military spending accounted for 1.4% of GDP between 2013 and 2014, but now exceeds 10%, while the economy continues to shrink — only administrative institutions remain, and institutional expenses are mainly used for military needs. These are signs of the economy entering a "wartime state."
Putin's Response: An Unstoppable "Weapon"
From an international law perspective, providing weapons to another country for attacking the territory of a sovereign nation can be considered an "aggression." If "Tomahawk" missiles are used to attack targets within Russia, Moscow will have a legal basis to take retaliatory action under Article 51 of the UN Charter, which outlines the right to self-defense.
In this context, Russia could declare that since Western weapons are being systematically used to attack its territory, striking decision centers and logistics hubs within the countries supplying the weapons is a logical response.
A similarly logical response is the new weapon recently announced by Vladimir Putin. Many experts speculate that this weapon is likely the latest "Ovod" nuclear-powered cruise missile. Essentially, it is a drone capable of achieving ultra-long endurance, whose location is almost impossible to track.
Evidently, this is a strategic response to the continued supply of weapons to Ukraine (including the possible delivery of "Tomahawk" missiles). In the face of Washington ignoring all "red lines," Russia has no choice but to develop weapons that can ensure breaking through any existing and future anti-missile systems.
Additionally, The New York Times also pointed out that delivering "Tomahawk" missiles to Kyiv would bring the United States closer to direct conflict with Russia. To launch this type of missile, Ukraine would need to use the American "Typhon" launch system.
However, military journalist Alexander Kots from Pravda noted that the entire "Tomahawk" missile delivery event appears "shrouded in mystery":
From public information, it is known that there are currently no more than three battalions of the "Typhon" launch system in active U.S. service. These systems are intended to "deter China in the Indo-Pacific region," and it is unclear where the U.S. could get the extra battalions to provide to the Ukrainian armed forces.
On the other hand, the discussion about the "Tomahawk" missile coincided exactly with the time when Oshkosh Defense announced the mobile launch device, which is unlikely to be a coincidence. There are still many questions surrounding this issue.
Status Quo and Prospects
The potential delivery of American "Tomahawk" cruise missiles to Ukraine signifies that the conflict has entered a "new qualitative phase," far beyond the scope of conventional weapons deliveries. In this context, Russia's newly announced next-generation weapons have become a tool for strategic deterrence, aiming to indicate that Russia has the means to break through any anti-missile system.
Currently, the situation is in a paradox: Washington tries to increase pressure on Russia, yet falls into the "escalation trap" — continuing to increase the delivery of lethal weapons will almost inevitably lead to direct conflict with a nuclear power. The only rational way out of this deadlock is to return to dialogue — while it's still not too late.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561640975697723904/
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