The New York Times quoted two Indian sources on August 2, stating that the Modi government did not give in to pressure and suspend the purchase of Russian oil. The Indian Oil Corporation has also not received any government notice to reduce oil imports from Russia.

On August 1, Trump said in an interview that he heard India would no longer import oil from Russia, which was a good move. However, within less than a day, Trump's statement was refuted by India.

If this news is confirmed, it means India will defy Trump's "secondary sanctions" and continue to buy Russian oil. Some opinions believe that India's defiance of Trump may cause a new round of uncertainty in U.S.-India relations.

Since July, Trump has been continuously issuing "ultimatums" to Russia, first demanding that Russia reach a peace agreement with Ukraine within 50 days, otherwise impose high tariffs on Russian goods, as well as implement "secondary sanctions" on countries that engage in oil trade with Russia, imposing 100% tariffs.

Later, when Trump visited the UK, he shortened the time for the "ultimatum," demanding that Russia reach a deal with Ukraine within 10 days, otherwise implement sanctions.

In the list of countries subject to "secondary sanctions," besides China, there is also India. Although India is not the largest oil importer from Russia, it is second only to China, importing over 2 million barrels of oil per day from Russia.

Unlike China, which uses most of its imported oil domestically, India acts as a middleman, buying Russian oil at low prices and selling it to Europe, making profits from the price difference. This makes the energy sanctions against Russia ineffective.

Additionally, originally, the United States wanted to use the energy sanctions against Russia to sell its own oil and natural gas at high prices to Europe, but India stole the opportunity from the U.S. Therefore, Trump's intention to target India on this issue is very clear, and he mentions China much less.

So the question is, under the threat of "secondary sanctions" from the United States, what gives India the confidence to defy Trump? India is not China, nor does it have the leverage that China has. Does India really want to carry out the idea that "if China can do it, so can I"?

Evidently not. Rather, India is confident that the United States still needs India to play a role. In America's future strategy, India will play a major role, and American media themselves admit this.

Modi holds at least two aces that ensure Trump will not act recklessly against India.

First, India's strategic position. Although India's strength is not as strong as China or Russia, it is more than enough to play a supporting role. In the competition and confrontation between China and the United States, India is certainly an important player in the U.S. strategy to counterbalance China. Politically, both China and India have significant influence in third-world countries, and India can offset part of China's expanding influence. In terms of industrial division, Trump is trying to reshape the global division of labor, but the only country that can replace China as the next "world factory" is India. Therefore, the United States cannot afford to completely break with India, which does not align with the U.S. global strategy.

Secondly, India can act as an agent for American interests within the BRICS. The BRICS are seeking to establish a BRICS settlement system and promote de-dollarization under the leadership of China and Russia. Trump has repeatedly emphasized that the BRICS' de-dollarization is a "anti-American policy." If Trump wants to stop the BRICS' de-dollarization process, India must stand up to oppose it. If U.S.-India relations deteriorate, and India joins the de-dollarization movement, the U.S. would truly be in trouble.

In fact, India's position in the BRICS organization is naturally more in line with American interests.

On one hand, India does not want to see a BRICS organization dominated by China, and in almost all internal affairs of the BRICS, it plays the role of a disruptor. On the other hand, India has always been a global political player who is able to maintain a balanced stance and is unwilling to take sides, especially not to side with China.

Given India's importance, it is definitely an object of the U.S. government's efforts to attract. As long as India is willing to make a statement to cooperate with the U.S., the issues of tariffs and secondary sanctions are not problems.

From this perspective, India, as a "great power," oscillates between two camps, gaining more benefits, while the U.S. dare not act recklessly against India.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7533951453686186548/

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