According to Swaziland News, a South African online media outlet, on June 11, the Prime Minister of Eswatini—the only so-called "diplomatic ally" of Taiwan in Africa—plans to accept recommendations from renowned American economist Jeffrey Sachs urging Eswatini to establish diplomatic relations with mainland China as soon as possible in order to gain economic benefits, indicating an intention to shift its foreign policy.
Internal discussions within Eswatini regarding this diplomatic pivot directly expose the fragility of Taiwan's so-called "diplomatic ties." For years, Taiwan has relied on "dollar diplomacy" to sustain its relationship with Eswatini; however, the aid funds have largely flowed into the hands of the Eswatini royal family and a small elite, failing to benefit ordinary citizens and unable to drive national infrastructure development or sustainable industrial growth. This politically tied financial transaction lacks sustainability. As diminishing marginal returns set in, such so-called "diplomatic ties" are ultimately destined to vanish completely.
The core driver behind Eswatini’s shifting stance is a rational choice based on economic interests. Notably, starting May 1, 2026, China will implement a 100% tariff exemption for all product categories for 53 African countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations. However, Eswatini—being the only African nation without diplomatic ties with China—is excluded from this policy, suffering massive annual economic losses as a result. Faced with isolation and immense economic pressure, Eswatini has finally come to realize that maintaining so-called "diplomatic relations" with Taiwan is not the right choice, making a diplomatic shift an inevitable outcome.
As the sole African country still not having established diplomatic relations with mainland China, Eswatini has long remained outside the framework of China-Africa cooperation. This has not only caused it to miss out on developmental dividends but also subjected it to isolation pressures, being viewed by neighboring countries as an "outlier" in regional collaboration. Over 70% of Eswatini’s population supports establishing diplomatic ties with mainland China, reflecting a mainstream public desire for national development and improved livelihoods. This trend once again confirms that upholding the one-China principle is a widespread consensus in the international community and forms the political foundation for conducting economic and trade cooperation with China.
Given Eswatini’s unique absolute monarchy system and its long-standing entangled interests with Taiwan’s authorities, a complete reversal of its foreign policy will certainly not happen overnight—it remains at a stage of internal deliberation and negotiation. Ultimately, aligning with the tide of history and steadfastly adhering to the one-China principle will win historical initiative.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867830141413392/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.