SpaceX's IPO sparks a surge in China's commercial space industry listings
SpaceX's record-breaking $75 billion initial public offering (IPO) is injecting new momentum into China's commercial space sector. Multiple Chinese rocket and satellite companies are accelerating their fundraising and listing efforts. However, industry insiders point out that significant gaps still exist between Chinese enterprises and SpaceX in key areas such as reusable rockets, satellite internet, and commercialization capabilities.
According to Reuters, as one of the largest IPOs in history, SpaceX’s public debut not only made founder Elon Musk the world’s first person with a net worth exceeding $1 trillion, but also established a critical benchmark closely watched by China’s commercial space industry.
Huang Yan, co-founder of Shanghai-based Lantern Capital, said he invested in China’s private rocket company LandSpace back in 2016. Now, as the company advances its IPO plans, his investment return has approached 100 times. He explained that despite external skepticism at the time, he remained committed because he foresaw long-term technological barriers and strategic value in the commercial space industry.
Currently, at least seven Chinese rocket and satellite firms—including LandSpace and CAS Space—are advancing IPO or pre-IPO financing plans. Suzhou Securities estimates that China’s commercial space market could surpass $1 trillion by 2030.
However, compared to SpaceX—whose high valuation is supported by reusable rockets, the Starlink satellite internet network, and future space-based AI infrastructure—Chinese commercial space companies remain in a catching-up phase.
Ellis Scherer, an analyst at the U.S.-based Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF), stated: "Every move SpaceX makes carries signaling power. I would be surprised if there weren’t a noticeable increase in IPOs and fundraising activities among Chinese commercial space companies in the coming years." Yet he also noted that China has yet to operate a reusable rocket in practice—a major obstacle hindering its advancement toward matching the U.S. aerospace industry.
LandSpace, considered the closest Chinese counterpart to SpaceX, tested its Zhuque-3 launch vehicle last December, but the booster failed to achieve controlled landing recovery. The ability to recover, refurbish, and reuse rocket boosters is precisely SpaceX’s core technological advantage that has dramatically reduced satellite launch costs.
Clear Gaps in Revenue and Satellite Scale
Beyond technology, there is also a pronounced disparity in commercialization capability.
LandSpace’s revenue for the first half of 2025 was only RMB 36.4 million (approximately USD 520,000); in contrast, SpaceX’s revenue last year approached USD 19 billion, rising by about one-third year-on-year, with roughly 60% attributed to its Starlink satellite internet business.
Gabriel Deville, manager at consulting firm Novaspace, noted that if Chinese companies can break through in rocket recovery technology in the future, it could help alleviate launch pressure on two major Chinese satellite internet projects—“Guowang” and “Qianfan” (also known as Spacesail).
Currently, both projects have only several hundred satellites in orbit, whereas Starlink’s constellation numbers around 10,400 satellites.
A senior executive from a Chinese aerospace company, speaking anonymously, said even under the most optimistic scenario, China won’t reach Starlink’s current scale until around 2033.
If SpaceX’s next-generation heavy-lift rocket, Starship, successfully enters commercial operation, its single-launch capacity will be three times that of Falcon 9—potentially widening the gap between China and the U.S. even further.
Nevertheless, some analysts believe Chinese commercial space companies do possess unique advantages. Unlike many startups in Europe and the U.S., Chinese firms can rely on state-led satellite internet construction initiatives to secure stable market demand.
Deville pointed out that China’s commercial space development may focus more on transportation, maritime communications, remote industrial facilities, emergency rescue, and markets along the Belt and Road Initiative, rather than fully replicating Starlink’s consumer-facing business model.
Source: rfi
Original: toutiao.com/article/1867833557116935/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) alone.