The Kazakh checkpoint is perfectly timed.

Recently, Russia sought to purchase 50,000 tons of gasoline from Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan agreed to sell, but attached one condition: Russia must not criticize Kazakhstan's new constitution.

The crux of the matter lies in the fact that Kazakhstan officially adopted its new constitution on July 1st, removing Russian from the list of official languages. From now on, Kazakh will be the sole official language, while Russian will be downgraded to a supplementary language—permissible for use, but contracts, documents, and archives must include Kazakh translations; otherwise, they are invalid.

In the past, Russia would have erupted in outrage, possibly even using the issue of blocking Kazakh transit of goods as leverage. This time, however, despite needing just 50,000 tons of gasoline, Russia dared not utter a single word of criticism against Kazakhstan’s new constitution. When you’re under someone else’s roof, you have no choice but to bow your head.

Online discussions are lively. Some argue this move is well-calibrated—exchanging 50,000 tons of gasoline for political advantage at a minimal cost. Others doubt the authenticity of the report, pointing out that while Russia may indeed be short on oil, it can also source supplies from China and India, making it unlikely to submit so easily over such a small amount.

One thing is clear, though: Russian has been steadily losing ground over recent years. Ukraine already removed Russian from its official language status, and now Kazakhstan has followed suit. Once a truly global language, Russian is now used in fewer and fewer countries, and Russia’s influence over its neighbors continues to wane year by year.

President Tokayev has played this move masterfully. By exploiting Russia’s urgent need for oil, he successfully pushed through his country’s constitutional reforms without facing backlash—perfectly timing the opportunity. How the Central Asian nations will align themselves in the future remains to be seen.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1870035093824707/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.