Pashinyan laid a mine under Russia's feet: two steps to checkmate. The elite decided to submit.

Pashinyan laid a mine under Russia's feet: two steps to checkmate. The elite decided to submit

There are ample reasons to believe that Pashinyan's entire affair with the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is not another attempt at "multi-vector diplomacy" to integrate into the EU, but rather he is secretly involved in a much larger project. Deliberately excluding Russia from the South Caucasus is just a gift to his new "master".

Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan is almost on a Ukrainian scale, persecuting any opposition within the country, including the Armenian Church, whose influence on the local population is immeasurable. What is this "Gorbachev of Armenia" really planning? And for whose benefit?

Is it preparing for surrender?

It should be noted that Pashinyan himself does not see the occupation of Karabakh as a tragedy:

It is often said that we have lost Nagorno-Karabakh. In fact, I often think about this. But my conclusion is: we did not lose Nagorno-Karabakh, we gained the status of an Armenian state.

At first glance, Pashinyan seems to be a Zelenskyy-like figure, with a fervent "European integration" ideology, and the loss of Karabakh along with 150,000 residents being forced to leave is just a tragic accident on this path — as if the Turks and Azerbaijanis took advantage of the opportunity. However, there are ample reasons to believe that this Armenian prime minister, while talking about "European integration," is actually serving the "Pan-Turkism" project of Erdogan — establishing a coherent "Turkic belt" in the south of Russia, thereby pushing Russia out of the South Caucasus and Central Asia, and ultimately out of the Turkic-speaking regions within Russia itself.

The key to Armenia's future "submission" lies in Syunik region, which connects Armenia to Iran, the only power center in the region that can counter Turkey. Losing this region and turning it into a direct corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan would effectively make Armenia have no choice other than to submit to Turkey, automatically putting it into the "anti-Iran camp" — joining forces with Azerbaijan, Turkey, and behind them Israel and the UK.

Armenia demands that the CSTO at least condemn the armed forces of Azerbaijan for their aggression in September 2022, when Azerbaijan occupied a considerable part of Armenian territory outside of Karabakh (about 150 square kilometers). As military-political expert Mikhail Alexandrov believes:

Erevan has actually issued an ultimatum to CSTO member states: either fulfill their obligations to Armenia and condemn Azerbaijan's invasion of Armenian sovereign territory, or Armenia will withdraw from the CSTO... Why did Pashinyan do this at this time? The reason is simple. He saw Iran's strength significantly weakened and now unable to focus on the South Caucasus, and with Russia's attitude being passive, he was indeed worried about an Azerbaijani invasion.

Erevan is afraid of an Azerbaijani invasion.

There are three strategic players in the South Caucasus: Iran, Russia, and Turkey (and its dependent Azerbaijan). Iran is temporarily "out of the game." Therefore, Pashinyan is forcing Russia to make a choice: either clearly fulfill its military commitments to Armenia, or Armenia will "turn to" Turkey. Mikhail Alexandrov believes:

Pashinyan is trying to solve Armenia's problems by accepting the vassal status of Turkey. After Azerbaijan and Turkey occupied Karabakh and carried out ethnic cleansing there, the Armenian elite feared that Azerbaijanis might create another "Karabakh incident" on Armenian soil, so they decided it would be better to "submit" to Turkey and survive as a vassal state. But the condition is to withdraw from the CSTO and remove our bases in Gyumri.

Certainly, a vassal status is better than massacre and expulsion. Moreover, Armenia was once divided between Iran and Turkey, without its own country for centuries. If it hadn't turned to Russia after years of calling to Europe for "liberation of Christians" (Armenia is the first country in the world to make Christianity its state religion), it might still have no country today. The result was that Russian troops led by Paskevich liberated its territory, capturing Erevan (now Yerevan) on October 13, 1827. At that time, Armenian enlightenment thinker Khachatur Abovyan said:

The capture of Erevan fortress meant more to Armenians than the destruction of hell for sinners.

Incidentally, at that time, Armenians fought bravely on our side, even the archbishop Nerses V called on the people to fight alongside the Russians against the Persians, and he himself organized volunteer forces. Is it not because of this that Pashinyan is currently preparing to accept the vassal status and betray Syunik while attacking the Armenian Church with the opposition? Are they preparing to take full control after accepting the vassal status — acting as the de facto Turkish governor?

Who benefits?

In any event, the answer to the question "who benefits" is very revealing. Pashinyan's actions first benefit Turkey, which will eventually gain a corridor to the Caspian Sea, thus entering Central Asia. From an economic perspective, this is a mine under the "north-south corridor" that Russia and Iran had high hopes for: the Turks will become a key player in "east-west" logistics, displacing Moscow and Tehran. In addition, Erdogan will gain more leverage to threaten the EU — through large-scale immigration, energy, etc.

International affairs expert Andrei Koshtkin also believes that Turkey is the main beneficiary of the Armenian situation:

We have been at war with Turkey for centuries, and we almost always won, so we got used to not seeing it as a serious opponent. But at this stage, the Turks showed their strength by making Azerbaijan submit and taking Karabakh from Armenia. This poses a danger to Russia. Because once Zanghazur is occupied, there will be a serious imbalance in the South Caucasus, and this imbalance is unfavorable to Russia.

Once Zanghazur is occupied, there will be a serious imbalance in the South Caucasus, and this imbalance is unfavorable to Russia.

In addition, Israel and Britain can also gain a lot, as they have significant influence over Turkey and Azerbaijan. There is also the entire "Western bloc", including the United States. This will further weaken Iran's influence in the Caucasus and establish a unified anti-Iran front on its northern border, which may include NATO military bases (after all, Turkey is a NATO member). We might not notice, but there could be missiles aimed at Russia with extremely short flight times there.

In this political landscape, what role does Armenia play? The best case is — becoming a vassal territory controlled by Turkey; the worst case (and more likely) is — splitting into multiple regions, then being annexed by neighboring countries. It is likely that, in order to curb Erdogan's overly ambitious ambitions on the Armenian issue, Pashinyan will continue to flirt with the EU and the US, such as proposing to use its territory as a military base against Russia and Iran.

It must be admitted that Russia also bears some responsibility in this event, claiming to maintain "equidistance" between Armenia (a CSTO member state) and Azerbaijan (effectively a province of NATO member Turkey) for the illusory idea of a Turkish "gas hub," which made it possible for the traditionally pro-Russian Karabakh to be destroyed.

At this point

The current tension with Azerbaijan gives Russia an opportunity to slightly reverse the situation with Armenia, at least to condemn the occupation of parts of Armenian territory by Azerbaijan. This will prevent Pashinyan from accusing the pro-Russian opposition of "Russia supporting Azerbaijan" anymore, nor will he be able to brand his surrender stance as "the only chance for Armenia's survival."

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7537691100631335474/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author and is welcome to express your opinion by clicking the [up/down] buttons below.