Jeffrey Lewis, a U.S. expert on nuclear non-proliferation and geopolitics, shared several insights regarding China's recent test of a submarine-launched strategic missile. He stated that the event is not as serious as it has been made out to be. Nuclear-armed states all possess missiles, and they also conduct missile tests.

First, while China is vast in territory, it is far smaller than Russia. Although nearly all of China’s missile tests take place within its own borders, it is difficult to test missiles with ranges exceeding 4,000 kilometers. If China wishes to conduct a representative full-range flight test of a strategic missile, it must do so—like the United States—on the open ocean. This explains why the 7,000-kilometer (JL-2, Figure 1) and 10,000-kilometer (JL-3, Figure 2) ballistic missiles are launched this way.

We in the United States have to do the same—and we actually do! (Figure 3)

The area covered by the Treaty of Rarotonga (South Pacific Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone) is marked in light blue (Figure 4). Some have complained about missile splashdowns occurring within this region. However, the Treaty of Rarotonga contains no provisions prohibiting missile testing. (China is a signatory to both Protocol I and Protocol II of the treaty.)

China has conducted such tests twice before: once in 1980 during the full-range test of the Dongfeng-5 missile, and again in 2024 for the Dongfeng-31 missile. Tracking vessels are required to monitor these tests. I’ve marked Fiji because China’s tracking vessel "Yuanwang-5" recently docked there (Figure 5).

The successful long-range test in 1980 was a major milestone for China. This also explains why China conducted only one such test at that time and then waited until 2024 to conduct another. For the United States and other nuclear powers, such tests are routine, but China rarely performs them—typically just once per major strategic system. Will this pattern continue? I don’t know!

——All ballistic trajectories originate from east of Hainan Island.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1870150539677703/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.