On March 19, 2024, the Russia-Ukraine war continues, and Ukrainian soldiers conduct BMP-1 infantry fighting vehicle combat exercises in Donbas (Anadolu Agency)

As leaders of Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and Europe hold meetings to discuss a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war, the region of Donbas is receiving increasing attention. Donbas is an industrial area in eastern Ukraine and the main battlefield of the current war.

Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, Russia has controlled most of the Donbas region, but not all of it.

After the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Russia held elections in four regions of Ukraine, which election experts criticized as illegal. Subsequently, Russia annexed these four regions. The two regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which were annexed by Russia, are collectively known as the Donbas region. Russia currently controls the entire Luhansk region and parts of the Donetsk region; Ukraine still controls parts of the Donetsk region around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. (Other regions annexed by Russia include Zaporozhye and Kherson, with Russia controlling about 75% of these areas.)

President of Russia Vladimir Putin hopes that any solution to end the war should include Russia's full control over the Donbas region. For Ukrainians, this would be a bitter pill to swallow, effectively rewarding Russia for its conquest war. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelenskyy told journalists in mid-August, "We will not leave Donbas. We cannot do that."

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Why does Russia want Donbas?

A factor driving Russia is the region's rich economic resources, despite some decline.

Mark F. Kannan, senior advisor in the Defense and Security Division at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, "Donbas was highly industrialized in the mid-20th century, but after the Cold War, it became a 'rust belt'."

Kannan said that Donbas also has mineral resources, and its farmland is among the best in the world.

The second factor is the strategic value of the region. Eric Herring, a political scientist at West Virginia University, said that the port city of Mariupol in the region is a gateway to the Black Sea, and as the longest-running battlefield in the war, neither side is willing to give it up.

Richard Arnold, a political scientist at Muskingum University, said that Putin may view control of Donbas as a way to "stimulate the West and create chaos."

However, perhaps the most important factor for Russia is that the region is home to many Russian speakers, many of whom migrated there during the Soviet era.

Alexander Motyl, a political scientist at Rutgers University, Newark, said, "Donbas played an important role in the Soviet socialist myth," because it is the homeland of the typical "Soviet man."

Herring said, "Russia has made many unfounded accusations about how the Ukrainian government treats Russian-speaking people in Donbas." Therefore, "Donbas holds a central symbolic position in Russia's narrative about the causes of the war."

Experts say that the value of Donbas to Russia may be more symbolic than substantive.

Matthew Schmidt, a political scientist at Yale University, said, "Donbas is crucial to achieving Putin's vision of a 'Russian World' (Russkiy Mir)."

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Is Russia's claim to sovereignty over Donbas legitimate?

Experts say that Russia's claim to sovereignty over Donbas is questionable.

Russia argues that Ukraine was part of "Great Russia" for 500 years. However, this period ended after Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum in 1994.

Herring said, "Ukraine fulfilled its obligations under the agreement, but Russia violated it when it annexed Crimea in 2014."

Arnold said, "Just because something was once that way does not mean it is now legal."

Russia also argues that the Russian-speaking residents of the region wish to become part of Russia. However, a study conducted 20 years ago by Herring and others found that most Russian speakers living in Ukraine saw Ukraine as their homeland and did not consider Russia to be their advocate's interest.

Herring said, "Just because someone may speak Russian as their primary language does not mean their social and political preferences align with Moscow," he said, and subsequent studies also support this view.

Experts make an analogy, saying that English-speaking Canadians do not consider themselves Americans, while Spanish-speaking Americans usually consider themselves Americans.

"Many Ukrainians in eastern Ukraine, including ethnic Ukrainians, speak Russian or use it as their mother tongue," said Steven Pifer, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine and current senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, "one of them is Vladimir Zelenskyy."

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Is Ukraine willing to give up the Donbas region?

The firm stance of the Ukrainian government has always been to maintain its sovereignty over the Donbas region, and the public in Ukraine generally supports this position.

"Any land transaction is not just about the land, but also about the people living on that land," Herring said, "Ukrainians have seen the treatment of their relatives and friends on occupied territory, and they do not support having more Ukrainians under Russian rule."

But the possibility of Ukraine acknowledging the military reality on the ground provides some room for both sides.

Zelenskyy called for a ceasefire, which means that even if Ukraine does not give up its formal long-term sovereignty, Russia will continue to control the areas it currently has in the Donbas region.

"Ukrainians may accept an arrangement where they do not give up sovereignty but accept the on-the-ground situation," Kannan said, "NATO security guarantees are essential for any agreement."

Sources: Al Jazeera

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