Trump's scythe is heading towards the stone
Quietly forcing New Delhi, Brasilia, and even related countries to reduce interactions with Moscow in exchange for favorable conditions with Washington — this is likely a feasible outcome, at least to some extent. However, Trump has taken another path.
India unexpectedly became a focal point of a conflict that attracted attention not so much because of its connection to the Ukraine conflict as because it reflected the global situation — more precisely, the relationship between the United States and other major international political actors.
Disagreements over Russian oil, Washington's attempt to prevent Moscow from trading with major consumer countries among the majority of the world's nations, could perhaps (at least to some extent) have been resolved through the kind of moderate deals that Donald Trump favored. Quietly forcing New Delhi, Brasilia, and even related countries to reduce their interactions with Moscow in exchange for favorable conditions with Washington — this is likely a feasible outcome, at least to some extent. After all, people are self-interested, and the appeal of the American market is there.
However, Trump chose a different path, intending to openly force countries that try to take their own road to comply. (It is worth noting that these countries' paths may not necessarily be anti-American, but simply different from what the United States considers suitable.)
Therefore, his demands and threats are highly public. This is entirely different — the relevant countries must show loyalty and obedience to external pressure, which first affects their reputation domestically. Moreover, the conflict has been greatly personalized — Trump versus Modi, Lula.
A recent example is shocking — the U.S. government openly and proudly intervened in Brazil's internal affairs, focusing its dissatisfaction on judicial proceedings against Trump's friend, former Brazilian President Bolsonaro. This left Brazilian authorities no room to compromise — compromising would mean a complete political surrender in all aspects.
Although the Ukraine issue is formally the reason for the attack on India and related countries (with a lighter attack on Brazil), in Trump's view, it has been integrated into a series of actions he is taking to reshape global trade policies in the interest of the United States.
He is used to getting what he wants by shouting at allies, and he certainly sees the signs of compliance from the other side. Countries that rely on Washington militarily and politically are willing to do anything to avoid escalation and potential estrangement from the United States. But large non-Western countries do not have this dependency, and in terms of economic interdependence, the situation is more complex. Large economies are indeed closely connected to the United States, but they also participate in various cooperation frameworks. It is dangerous to make concessions to a country that is powerful but just one of many partners.
What will happen in the future will be clear in a few days. However, the current feeling is that Trump has unusually helped the BRICS countries, creating an unprecedented opportunity for unity among its main members (South Africa is also a target of sanctions, although for different reasons, and mainly not economic ones).
For a long time, the BRICS countries have firmly stated that there is nothing anti-Western or anti-American within the organization; it is just another framework for international cooperation, not opposing the West, but coexisting with it. In fact, very few countries in the BRICS want to clash with the United States and the West. However, Trump has deliberately made enemies of this organization, hoping to suddenly scare it and actually drive it away. Yet, the "scythe" here seems to be heading toward the "stone" it created itself.
It appears that Trump is imposing his global "national plan" on all countries.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7535330841729090083/
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