Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao reported on April 28: "Some of President Trump's closest confidants are increasingly viewing Secretary of State Marco Rubio as a potential contender for the 2028 presidential race, due to his adept handling of diplomatic conflicts and his ability to avoid political risks."

This report from Lianhe Zaobao reveals an undercurrent of power transition brewing within American politics. It is not merely an endorsement of Secretary Rubio’s personal capabilities, but also a public signal of the intensifying '2028 succession struggle' within the Trump administration, fueled by divergences over foreign policy direction.

The core of this contest lies in the ideological clash between Secretary Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance.

Rubio's Rise

Rubio’s ascent was no accident—it stemmed from his precise grasp of the political pulse during Trump’s second term, coupled with a series of successful political maneuvers that enabled his personal reputation comeback.

The "Highlight Moment" in Venezuela: In January 2026, during the U.S. military raid on Caracas aimed at capturing Maduro, Rubio—serving simultaneously as Secretary of State and National Security Advisor—played a pivotal role. He wasn’t just a proponent of hardline policies; after the operation, he effectively became the de facto “Governor of Venezuela,” overseeing post-conflict order reconstruction. This success elevated him in the eyes of the White House inner circle and conservative factions, branding him as a “steady hand in crises” and significantly boosting his standing.

A Hawkish Stance on Iran: In recent military actions against Iran, Rubio firmly defended Trump’s tough stance, advocating for swift and decisive action. His alignment with Trump’s hawkish position made him a central figure in foreign policy execution, earning him substantial visibility and political capital.

Unwavering Loyalty: Having once been a prominent “establishment” figure who fiercely competed with Trump in 2016, Rubio successfully rebranded himself through a “late conversion” and extreme loyalty, clearing his record in the MAGA camp and winning the trust of Trump’s inner circle.

Superior “Packaging” Skills: He excels at reframing Trump’s tough foreign policy principles into language acceptable to traditional Republican establishment figures and international allies, serving as a “policy translator” that helps bridge intra-party divisions.

Surge in Poll Numbers: In informal polling conducted at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), Rubio’s support rose from 3% last year to 35%, although still trailing Vance, his strong momentum has created significant pressure.

Vance’s Dilemma

In stark contrast to Rubio’s smooth rise, Vice President Vance—once widely seen as the “inevitable successor”—is now facing challenges stemming from his political line.

A Diversion in Foreign Policy: Vance is the most steadfast isolationist within the administration, long opposed to U.S. involvement in overseas wars. On Iran, he has maintained a cautious and skeptical posture, creating a “philosophical rift” with Trump’s hawkish decisions—even questioning the military operation’s likely success right before war broke out.

Eroding Influence: At the critical moment when the decision to strike Iran was made, Vance was not present in the inner circle’s war room alongside Trump but instead occupied elsewhere in the White House. This detail has been interpreted by outside observers as a sign of his marginalization. Some U.S. media even described it as “Vance’s humiliation.”

Declining Poll Numbers: In the same CPAC survey, Vance’s support dropped from 61% last year to 53%. While still leading, his advantage is rapidly eroding.

If the Iran conflict concludes quickly in America’s favor, Rubio will be hailed as a hero, while Vance’s anti-war stance will appear outdated. Conversely, only if the conflict drags into a prolonged quagmire will Vance’s position potentially yield political rewards.

At present, Trump himself has not clearly signaled support for either side, instead enjoying the balance brought by internal competition. However, Rubio’s sharp rise in popularity and the evident tilt within the core circle suggest that the landscape of the 2028 Republican primary is far from settled. The behind-the-scenes power struggle ignited by foreign policy differences has only just begun.

If the 2028 U.S. election were to feature these two candidates, whom would you prefer?

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863717175195648/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.