Reference News Network, September 24 report: The Spanish website "La Voz de Galicia" published an article titled "Europe: Shadow of Economic Crisis and Recession" on September 19. The author is Eduardo Andrade Borne, the following is a compilation:

Europe is experiencing a period of economic vulnerability, which reflects the decline of its oligarchic capitalist economic model, a decline that could last for more than a decade.

The UK, Germany, and France, as the three major economies of the European continent, are facing different yet interrelated problems: sluggish economic growth, persistent high inflation, and increasing fiscal pressure, which not only limit the ability of governments to respond but also spread public discontent towards the capitalist oligarchic elite in Europe.

Under the current situation, there are two new external shocks. On one hand, US President Trump has demanded that NATO member states increase military spending to 5% of their GDP. On the other hand, the US government has restarted its protectionist agenda, introducing new tariff policies, which may not only increase the import costs of European goods but also trigger transatlantic trade wars.

In this context, the UK, Germany, and France each face different difficulties. Since Brexit, the UK's economy has become increasingly vulnerable in trade disputes, with foreign investment gradually decreasing. Inflation is eroding household purchasing power, and the new tariffs imposed by the fickle Trump administration have further increased prices, leading to increased poverty among some British citizens.

Germany, known as the "industrial engine of Europe," is under the dual impact of declining global demand and energy transition. Germany's economy, heavily reliant on exports, is particularly sensitive to any trade barriers. Currently, Germany has initiated a process of deindustrialization, with rising unemployment and continuously deteriorating living standards among the population.

France's situation is similarly complex: high fiscal deficits, yet difficult to cut public spending. The country faces the most severe dilemma: how to invest more in defense without exacerbating the debt burden. As France is mired in economic and political crises, social tensions are likely to escalate further.

Among these issues, the dilemma of military spending and Trump's tariffs stands out prominently. Allocating 5% of GDP to defense is a historic significant increase, far exceeding the current 2% commitment of NATO. This means that Europe needs to additionally invest billions of euros annually, either by cutting expenditures on education, healthcare, and infrastructure or by increasing taxes.

At the same time, the US tariff strategy causes European goods to be more expensive in the US market. Conversely, goods exported from the US to the EU can enjoy duty-free treatment. In the short term, only a few local industries can benefit, while in the long term, prices will continue to rise, and supply chains will gradually weaken. Moreover, Trump continues to threaten Europe, demanding that it stop purchasing Russian energy.

Now, the view that Europe is gradually becoming a vassal state of the United States and heading toward the Third World is not merely rhetorical exaggeration. The real key is that Europe's position in the global economic and trade landscape is being challenged. While other countries are investing massively in innovation and technology, Europe faces the risk of falling into a cycle of "low economic growth, constantly rising debt, and escalating social tensions." The reason behind this is that European neoliberal capitalism is in decline, unable to respond to the most urgent needs of the people in this "old continent."

Although the EU is striving to push for a unified stance among member states, the divisions among them continue to emerge. Germany is unwilling to allocate such a huge amount of resources to the defense sector; France, as a nuclear-armed military power, tries to play a leadership role but lacks budget space; post-Brexit Britain is moving forward alone, trying to maintain its "special relationship" with the US, while also needing to support its weak economy.

The lack of internal cohesion within Europe may weaken its voice on the international stage. Trump is taking advantage of and exacerbating this division, he clearly knows that Europe needs the US as a so-called "security provider against Russia." The contradiction is evident: the more the US exerts pressure, the more the EU realizes the urgency of establishing its own strategic autonomy.

In summary, Europe is caught in a dilemma: to continue to remain loyal to its historical ally, the US, or to promote the development of common defense and trade policies. The final outcome depends not only on economic data but also on whether European leaders can overcome the doubts generated by historical differences and act in unison.

Ultimately, Europe is at a critical crossroads. It either accepts the fate of stagnation over the next ten years, or achieves breakthroughs through structural reforms, financial coordination, and clear investments in innovation. How to respond to Trump's demands for increased military spending and tariff policies will determine the future direction of Europe. Decline is not inevitable, but inaction will come at a heavy cost. If no measures are taken to reverse the situation, it is tantamount to self-destruction. (Translated by Zhang Weiyu)

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7553575453634642486/

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