The Indian Navy's "Vikrant" aircraft carrier, known as the invincible one, was spotted on April 23rd in the offshore waters of the important naval base and naval aviation airbase Goa/Gulf of Khambhat in western India.

At that time, our assessment was that the ship was receiving its carrier air wing near Goa and would then head to the Arabian Sea to maintain strategic presence and implement strategic deterrence. Western media reports also clearly analyzed this point.

However, who would have thought that just when we were speculating about the actions of the "Vikrant" and Pakistan Air Force responses, Modi came up with a bluff - hey, the "Vikrant" turned around and went back!

According to satellite images captured by MAXAR on April 26th in Gulf of Khambhat, it is clearly shown that the Indian Navy's pride, the "Vikrant", has returned to the naval base at Gulf of Khambhat and is docked at the pier - this cannot be India's second aircraft carrier.

After all, the flight deck features of the "Vikrant" are very clear. Moreover, India's other aircraft carrier, the "Vikramaditya", is still undergoing mid-life modifications in the dry dock at Kochi Naval Shipyard. Therefore, the return of the "Vikrant" is beyond doubt.

Why did the invincible Indian Navy aircraft carrier turn back? People outside are discussing this, and the most common speculation is that the Pakistan Air Force effectively deterred the Indian Navy aircraft carrier.

For example, some people believe that Pakistan Air Force's air-to-air missiles are more advanced, and their anti-ship missiles pose a great threat to the "Vikrant". Therefore, under the pressure of the Pakistan Air Force, the aircraft carrier "Vikrant" made an unexpected retreat... But Major Wan believes that this matter should not be so simple.

The Role of Indian Aircraft Carriers

After all, according to our previous assessment, the role of the "Vikrant" was not to actually attack Pakistan, but to serve as a presence fleet deployed in the Indian Ocean.

In other words, it does not have to take action, but the Pakistan military must ensure that a relatively strong joint sea-air combat force is configured along the Karachi coast to allow the Indian Air Force to concentrate its forces in the north, achieving superiority over the Pakistan Air Force cluster in the northern region, facilitating the organization of offensive campaigns.

In this situation, the advantage of the "Vikrant" is actually strategic: my overwhelming advantage forces you not to dare to actively attack my aircraft carrier, but you cannot ignore my aircraft carrier either, so you have to maintain a large-scale force for defense.

As long as the Indian aircraft carrier does not take action and stays in the Arabian Sea while tying down the Pakistan sea-air forces around Karachi, the task for the Indian Navy is considered completed.

Therefore, if the Indian military wants to continue to deploy corresponding campaign postures against the Pakistan military, regardless of what specific role the "Vikrant" can play, as long as it is deployed in the Arabian Sea, it will be a thorn in Pakistan's side. The strategic uncertainty requires Pakistan to ensure the deployment of one airborne warning squadron and two or three fighter squadrons around the strategic hub of Karachi.

Regarding the threat to the "Vikrant", let us say this: the biggest protection for the "Vikrant" is first, India's overall overwhelming national power over Pakistan, and the political backing from the United States revealed by Western media, which gives the "Vikrant" strategic initiative. Second, the high mobility of the aircraft carrier itself; even at a speed of 15 knots, it can move 360 nautical miles, approximately 666 kilometers day and night. For Pakistan's maritime awareness capabilities, without full support from a certain Eastern country, finding the "Vikrant" is not easy.

The Reason for the Return of the Indian Aircraft Carrier

Even so, the "Vikrant" still returned to port, and within three or four days, it was found from the Arabian Sea back to the Gulf of Khambhat naval base. We think there could be several factors:

Firstly, it might be a misjudgment? The MAXAR satellite that first discovered the "Vikrant" was taking pictures of the "Vikrant" sailing from the Arabian Sea towards the nearshore waters of Gulf of Khambhat, rather than from the nearshore waters of Gulf of Khambhat towards the Arabian Sea. So, if the "Vikrant" was not originally setting sail but had just completed its patrol and was preparing to return to Gulf of Khambhat, then our assessment of its operational posture would indeed be completely wrong.

Secondly, the "Vikrant" may have encountered some problems, but not the ridiculous stories circulating online about explosions in the toilets. However, considering the subsystems of an aircraft carrier, they are mostly redundant systems. Unless some disruptive failures occur that affect its navigation and combat performance, it would not have to turn back halfway due to deterrence. For example, engine problems, problems with situational awareness/systems for carrier-based aircraft operations, etc.

Of course, if such problems occur and are unsolvable at sea, we would likely soon see scaffolding on the carrier's island or its return to the Kochi shipyard for repairs. Whether there was a malfunction, we will surely clarify later.

Thirdly, India may have received some intelligence. It is possible, for example, receiving reports that Pakistan is really preparing to sink the "Vikrant". I don't care about your strategic threat to me, nor do I care about the comparison of our forces; if you dare to come, I will sink you, even at the risk of triggering a full-scale war. In that case, India's attempt to use the "Vikrant" as a presence fleet to deter Pakistan's forces would fail, and it might drag India into trouble itself. Don't forget, India has the backing of the United States, whereas Pakistan has stronger support, and the assistance provided to Pakistan would be more practical and lethal.

If India really judged based on certain factors, such as Pakistan being able to always track its aircraft carrier, Pakistan preparing naval aviation forces, and unsealing stored air-launched anti-ship missiles, etc., concluding that its aircraft carrier is in danger and may not achieve the expected effect of deterring Pakistan's forces, ordering the "Vikrant" to withdraw from the Indian Ocean is entirely possible.

If this is true, it can only be said that the Indian Navy lost in the game of deterrence with Pakistan's maximum pressure. In this round of "staring contest", India appears somewhat timid.

Finally, there is another possibility: that India, in this round, feels less confident and proactively cooled down the situation, withdrawing the aircraft carrier as a gesture to ease tensions.

Of course, India's cooling down of the situation is probably just that there will be no major fighting on the front lines, but India has many covert activities going on behind the scenes. After all, looking at recent years, the Indian Air Force hasn't gained much advantage over the Pakistan Air Force, but India has deep connections and plays a masterful game with groups like the Pakistani Taliban and the Baloch Liberation Organization, as well as Sindhi separatist organizations.

So, when it is difficult to control the intensity on the front line, India might try to find its footing through covert channels instead, which is entirely possible.

Pakistan also stated that India's response might include terrorist attacks in various cities. Not long ago, the Baloch Liberation Organization attacked a Pakistani military convoy near Gwadar again, killing more than ten Pakistani soldiers at once. To some extent, this can also be seen as India retaliating in kind. Since some of the ground has been regained in covert channels, it is acceptable to cool down the front line too. Therefore, the Indian Navy withdrew the aircraft carrier as a signal of not wanting to fight.

The Future Direction of the India-Pakistan Situation

Of course, strategic things are often true and false, with both real actions and feints coexisting. Going forward does not necessarily mean an actual attack, and pulling back does not necessarily mean cowardice. Unless we can get insider intelligence from Modi's desk, all our assessments are essentially guesses - guesses can only approximate the truth but cannot fully replicate it.

After all, looking back at the buildup of forces before the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in February 2022, Russia also had some troops from the 8th Army withdrawn from the frontline confrontation. At that time, it was considered a strategic gesture of goodwill, but no one expected the conflict to officially begin eight days later. This time, India withdrawing its aircraft carrier is similar. Now, who can tell whether India's government is truly showing goodwill or trying to lull Pakistan into complacency?

After all, the buildup of forces on both sides is still ongoing. Pakistan needs no explanation; at least the mobilization of the air force and army has been filmed by its own citizens and posted online randomly, causing even some Pakistani military bloggers to feel uneasy, urging everyone not to post photos of troop deployments...

From the photos taken by Pakistani civilians, it can be seen that the Pakistan military has deployed its Khalid main battle tanks, SH-15 155mm truck-mounted howitzers, and the air force has begun large-scale tactical relocation, moving back and forth between frontline and secondary airfields. Some abandoned airfields have even been reopened.

The Indian Air Force is also not falling behind. Its EMB-145 airborne early warning aircraft is flying brazenly near the India-Pakistan border with civilian codes for battlefield situation awareness. Both sides are showing a posture of readiness to fight. Will they fight, fight big or small, use air forces or deploy ground troops, or will上演 the plot of "State of Siege"? Major Wan thinks that given the current situation, nothing can be said for sure. Let's wait and see.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498552210146574899/

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