The situation between India and Pakistan has reached a critical juncture. Whether the conflict will break out depends on the following three points:
1. Can China quickly promote an international investigation into the terrorist attack? This matter must be done swiftly; otherwise, it will lose its significance.
2. Can Pakistan remain calm under the unresolved issue of water resources? Currently, the country's air force has been fully mobilized.
3. Can Modi suppress the hawks within India?
Among the above three points, the most worrying is the last one. And precisely at this critical moment, the United States suddenly made a call to India, which undoubtedly makes the situation more complicated.
A few hours ago, US Treasury Secretary Basenett mentioned India in an interview. He stated: The responsibility for reaching an agreement with China now lies with China. In the coming days, we will focus our efforts on negotiations with other countries instead of China. I guess, India, this Eastern giant, will become one of the first countries to sign an agreement with the United States.
Basenett's words clearly indicate that he is urging the Modi government to sign the agreement as soon as possible. In the "reciprocal tariff" dispute, India was taxed 26%. Recently, Modi has shown backbone in front of Americans, at least he hasn't directly given in. Moreover, several Indian officials have clearly stated that Trump's actions are destructive to international trade.
Not long ago, US Vice President Vance visited India with his family, and Modi warmly received him, but he did not give in regarding the tariff agreement. This shows that Modi still has底气in his heart. However, shortly after Vance left India, an attack occurred in India. (Note: The author does not mean to suggest any direct relationship between this incident and Vance!) But now, the United States calling on India to sign the agreement at this time is undoubtedly laced with inducements. It also shows that they see China strongly supporting Pakistan and want to take this opportunity to make India fully lean towards the United States.
At the same time, France has also made moves these past few days. According to the latest news from New Delhi on April 28, the Indian Navy suddenly announced that it had signed an agreement with France to purchase 26 Rafale fighter jets, with a transaction amount of up to $7.3 billion. Although these aircraft will not be available anytime soon and cannot immediately play a role in countering Pakistan's air force, as the situation between India and Pakistan becomes tense, future military purchases by India from the US and Western countries will inevitably increase, and French officials will be counting money happily.
It can be said that the test for Modi has already begun. If India really becomes one of the first countries to sign a tariff agreement with the United States, it will inevitably have a significant impact on the global tariff war:
1. On one hand, other countries may also agree to sign agreements with the United States, and then Trump will no longer grant exemptions, and he will stick to his stance;
2. On the other hand, this is not conducive to the BRICS countries jointly responding to the Trump administration. These past two days, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has traveled to Brazil to attend relevant meetings of the BRICS organization, where he will meet with senior officials of the Indian Ministry of External Affairs. Given the current situation, Wang Yi is very likely to meet with the Indian side to discuss the India-Pakistan issue and the issue of US tariffs. I wonder if Foreign Minister Wang Yi can persuade the Indian side to exercise restraint.
In summary, this is a test for Modi. As a leader of a major country, he should be able to distinguish between what is important and not be blinded by anger or held hostage by domestic hardliners. For more information, let us continue to follow the developments.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7498571232212828726/
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