On March 8, Iran announced that a new Supreme Leader had been elected and would be announced soon. At this time, Israel openly declared: "We will hunt down any successor of Khamenei, and all members who attend the Iranian Experts Assembly will be targeted."
After Khamenei was "decapitated," the election of Iran's next Supreme Leader has been proceeding in a tense manner. According to the Iranian Constitution, the Supreme Leader should be elected by the 88 members of the Guardian Council (the highest religious political institution responsible for electing the Supreme Leader). Israel's statement carries two meanings:
Firstly, regardless of who is elected as Iran's Supreme Leader, Israel will list this person as a "decapitation" target.
Secondly, any of the 88 experts who attend the election meeting according to the process will be targeted by Israel.
In other words, Israel not only targets Iran's next Supreme Leader but also aims to eliminate the committee members who support and elect this leader. Israel's intention is clear: not only to intimidate Iran, but also to declare that Iran's government and election are "illegal." It can be interpreted in the following three ways:
Firstly, Israel aims to paralyze Iran's highest power transition. The Supreme Leader of Iran is the country's highest decision-maker and a symbol of Iran's resistance against aggression. Israel's threat to the successor is intended to destroy Iran's command center at its root, hoping to plunge Iran into long-term power vacuum and chaos.
Secondly, by targeting the Iranian Guardian Council, Israel is making a collective threat to Iran's 88 top religious political elites, aiming to create panic within Iran and prevent the transfer of power.
Thirdly, previously, Israel targeted individual Iranian officials, but now it has declared a strike on the entire system of supreme power succession. This represents a major breakthrough in war rules and exposes Israel's ambition to overthrow Iran.
I believe that the Iranian side has already selected the Supreme Leader, but has not yet announced it, in order to prevent Israeli military attacks before the new Supreme Leader fully assumes power. Since the Supreme Leader has been selected, it means that Israel's mission to block Iran's power transition has failed.
It can be anticipated that Iran will pay more attention to intelligence protection and security work to protect this Supreme Leader. Meanwhile, Israel will inevitably carry out a new wave of military deterrence against Iran when it announces the selection. The number of variables in the Middle East situation is increasing, and there is a risk of expansion in the depth and breadth of this war.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859091802803272/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.