American think tank: Army hopes to build 1 million drones, easier said than done

Even if 1 million drones are built each year, it may still be insufficient for the U.S. Army in a major power conflict - because China's industrial base can at least build 8 million.

The U.S. Army is well aware that the modern battlefield has undergone fundamental changes since the last large-scale conflict. Unmanned systems now play a crucial role on the modern battlefield, a role that was previously only possible with manned platforms. Given these changes, such as conflicts in the Caucasus, Africa, the Middle East, and most notoriously in Ukraine, the U.S. Army hopes to procure at least 1 million drones within the next two to three years.

After the first delivery of drones, the Army is discussing purchasing tens of thousands of additional drones annually - ranging from 500,000 to millions of drones.

Understanding the Army's procurement strategy

Currently, the U.S. defense industrial base produces about 50,000 drones per year. To say that its capacity needs to be significantly increased is no exaggeration.

One major shift is that the Army wants to treat these drones like ammunition - low-cost and consumables, rather than high-end flagship drones like the MQ-1 "Predator" and MQ-9 "Reaper," which became iconic in the war on terror. This aligns with the experience in the Ukraine war, where large numbers of low-cost drones were used for intelligence gathering, fire adjustment, and even striking targets.

To achieve such a massive procurement volume, the Army is launching a unique public-private industrial strategy and has named it "SkyFoundry." By developing domestic manufacturing - including motors, sensors, batteries, and circuit boards - the U.S. Army's vision is not just to purchase, but to establish a supply chain that can quickly respond to demand. This is crucial in any crisis, as the Army needs the ability to produce enough drones to address any potential threat.

In addition, the domestic production component of this new drone procurement plan directly stems from the fact that China is the supplier of most key components of drone systems. This is a serious security risk, especially as the U.S. Army (and militaries around the world) increasingly rely on unmanned systems.

Aside from purchasing these drones, the Army is also testing methods to defend against enemy drones. They are researching net projectiles, electromagnetic tools, and new explosives to weaken the threat that drones pose on the battlefield. Therefore, the Army's strategy is not only related to procuring as many drones as possible (and achieving their domestic production). The Army also hopes to establish an effective defense system to counter these systems.

Even producing 1 million drones per year may still not be enough

Russia and Ukraine currently produce about 4 million drones each per year. China, with its vast industrial capacity, may produce more than 8 million drones per year - most of which are civilian drones manufactured for export, but these drones can easily be armed and modified into military drones. In a conflict between evenly matched countries, the United States would be at a severe disadvantage.

However, expanding the scale of drone production as the Army hopes is easier said than done. The machines required to manufacture drone components require considerable preparation time. Defense News detailed the situation at the Rock Island Arsenal, and they need several months to set up certain production lines. Moreover, since the majority of the supply chain still relies on countries like China, expanding domestic production is a complex and slow process.

Additionally, there is the issue of how to view drones as consumables. People can easily discard these systems, but they must be prepared to lose large numbers of such systems. A high loss rate means that armies involved in drone-intensive armed conflicts need to continuously purchase replacement equipment. In high-intensity conflicts, if the situation deteriorates, the rate of drone losses could even exceed one million per year.

The goal of 1 million drones is very ambitious, representing a key strategic shift for the U.S. Army, but achieving this grand goal is no easy task. Even with such a large number of drones, it cannot guarantee an absolute advantage. However, if the Army can refine its supply chain, simplify the manufacturing process, and integrate the use of drones across its units, it can significantly enhance tactical flexibility and resilience in future conflicts. Can the U.S. Army do it?

Source: The National Interest

Author: Brandon J. Vechet

Date: November 15

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1848900562754560/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.