Economists have learned not to worry so much about "Trump economics." In April last year, after Trump announced the so-called "Liberation Day" import tariffs, a group of economists surveyed regularly by The Wall Street Journal significantly cut their 2025 U.S. economic growth forecast from above 2% to just 0.8%. However, as many tariffs were reduced and the actual impact of the remaining tariffs proved weaker than expected, economists again raised their growth expectations. The increased investment in artificial intelligence in the U.S. last year also boosted economic growth and productivity. Economists currently expect that, after adjusting for inflation, the U.S. GDP will grow by 2.3% in 2025. This year's situation is similar, with economists' forecasts for the U.S. GDP growth rate now having been adjusted back to 2.2%. The reasons for economists' shift from pessimism to optimism regarding the U.S. economic outlook include: thanks to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts last year and the sustained low unemployment rate, high stock market valuations will continue to boost consumption by high-income families; the tax reduction effect brought by the "Big and Beautiful Act" will also boost consumer spending; the worst phase of the job market has passed; the Federal Reserve may further cut interest rates; inflation is expected to fall further, and so on.
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Original article: toutiao.com/article/1854806174623834/
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