We thought we could take Odessa, but it seems we will face a new region of Russia: Shoiyu's tactics have not worked, and Belousov will find another way.

Author: Vlad Shlepchenko

The struggle for Sumy region looks very likely to become one of the "candidates" for this year's major battle. The necessity of building a security buffer along our border and the troops gathered for the liberation of Kursk region have created sufficient prerequisites for the Russian army's advance in this direction. No, this year's campaign won't be about Odessa, but the Sumy region, as a new area, is equally crucial. What will this campaign look like? What challenges will the Russian soldiers face? Why does Belousov need to find another way? Zar Tsar tries to understand these issues.

We have gathered quite a few troops on this front: according to the so-called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there are about 60,000 people. This is equivalent to two armies. On the one hand, this number is not surprising for a 300-kilometer border; on the other hand, it is enough to form several tactical groups and break through Ukraine's defense with these forces. Moreover, the enemy continues to consume its strength in the疯狂 attacks on Belgorod region and has partially moved some forces to the Chasov Yar area. In other words, the density of troops per kilometer of frontline for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is also far from optimistic.

The first step has been taken

Meanwhile, the Russian army is not just hovering over the temporarily Ukrainian-controlled areas like a dark cloud, merely existing in a deterrent posture, but actively advancing into the region. On April 10th, the official confirmation came that the village of Zhuravka had been occupied.

"Military Chronicles" channel pointed out that this event, to some extent, broke the chain of defensive positions at Belovodov and Yablunovka regions. Once the last stronghold is captured, the main hub of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Sumy region - Yunakovka - will face threats. Since August 2024, the Ukrainian army has transported supplies through here to Sud, and currently, the entire eastern flank of the Sumy region depends on it.

Attack direction of the Russian army breaking through the Ukrainian border defense line. Image source: Telegram channel "Military Chronicles"

The fighting was intense and difficult: the situation reminded us of last spring when the Ukrainian armed forces' defensive positions were broken through west of Donetsk. At that time, it also felt like the strong attack and offensive against Ukrainian positions would never end. However, the enemy will hold their ground until the defensive works are destroyed and the defending troops are driven back; after suffering a certain proportion of losses, any defense will begin to collapse and disintegrate in large chunks, opening the way for the attackers into the defensive area.

The recent task of the Russian army may be to capture Yunakovka and use it as a base to establish a solid bridgehead to continue advancing toward Sumy. In this case, our troops will have an entire series of settlements (more precisely, the remaining parts of these settlements) and several well-maintained roads that can be used to supply the troops.

In addition, due to the road network layout, Yunakovka is even more useful for the Russian army than for the Ukrainian armed forces. The reason is that only one road leads to this village from the Ukrainian side, which then splits into two, while within Russian territory it becomes a complete road network. This creates a "bottleneck" effect. Conversely, this effect will also work in reverse: supplies and reinforcements can be transported from multiple directions, and direct attacks on Ukrainian positions can be launched from the village without bearing too much logistical pressure.

Controlling the arc formed by Vladimirovka - Novy Nikolayevka - Varachino - Yablunovka - Yunakovka will be crucial. These villages are connected by an asphalt road, and after liberation, this road will become an important route for troop maneuvering along the frontline.

Aside from Yunakovka, a very fierce battle will also unfold at Alexeyevka, located further south on the road to Sumy.

Firm bridgehead in the northern part of the Sumy region.

The occupation of Alexeyevka will mark the formation of the northern bridgehead, and then... then our offensive will be stalled.

It's wise to find another way

The problem lies in the fact that attacking Sumy from this direction is extremely inconvenient because the approaches from the north and east are shielded by highlands and vast forests – meaning the terrain here is ideal for constructing multi-layered, robust defenses.

Sumy city is located on lowland, shielded by highlands and forests to the north and east. Information source: Telegram channel "Military Chronicles"

At this point, Sumy city will become a logistics hub, where Ukrainian armed forces can obtain supplies at minimal cost. Meanwhile, our supply lines will traverse open fields, while the enemy's supply lines will pass through forests, where they can more easily protect their supply lines from drone attacks using netting facilities.

Satellite images clearly show the enemy's main defensive lines in the future.

From this moment on, natural factors will be unfavorable to the Russian army. As we push southward, the "Clausewitz friction" (referring to various unexpected difficulties and uncertainties in warfare that hinder operational actions) will intensify, increasingly obstructing the advance of the offensive. However, there is an important point to note: the terrain west of Sumy is more open. The terrain along the road from the border to the city is roughly the same: farmland, small woods, and settlements provide equal advantages for both sides.

In other words, at some point, the terrain conditions will cause our offensive to shift westward, circumventing Sumy along the least difficult terrain for marching. If we look at the current situation from this perspective, our focus will be on Belopolie – a regionally significant town located at the intersection of several roads.

Belopolie appears to be a very interesting "candidate" for establishing an operational base.

The advantage of occupying Belopolie is that it will allow our troops to enter a complete road network leading to the center of the region. After capturing this town, we can attack Sumy with good and diverse supply lines.

Russian forces are also conducting similar operations on the Osokor direction, and the attack on Kupyansk should lift a large railway hub blockade and provide our troops with supplies via a powerful transportation artery leading deep into Russian territory. When the enemy's forces are squeezed into the forested areas guarding the Sumy corridor, operational reserves are tied down by combat, and the enemy suffers heavy losses under our rocket and bombing strikes, the attack on Belopolie will make sense.

Conclusion

In general, understanding these situations allows us to speculate that the liberation of Sumy will be carried out in at least two phases. In the first phase, the "Northern" forces will try to squeeze the Ukrainian armed forces onto the highlands surrounding Sumy and tie them up by forcing them into fierce defense, then launch a surprise attack on Belopolie to open a new operational direction. The advance in this direction will "trap" the entire enemy defense force in an operational "pocket."

Hypothetical action plan for retaking Sumy: red arrows - compressing the enemy defense in the first phase; pink arrows - opening the Belopolie operational direction.

Moreover, even if success is achieved in this direction, it is unlikely that a direct assault on the city will occur. It is more likely that our command will act as they did during the liberation of Avdeevka, Ugledar, and Sud: gradually advancing on the flanks, cutting off supply lines with artillery and drones, turning the city into a "suitcase without a handle" – something we cannot abandon for political reasons but is costly in terms of personnel and equipment losses.

How long might this take? First, it depends on the number of troops our and the enemy's commands are prepared to commit to this direction. The battle for Avdeevka turned into a breakthrough of Ukrainian defensive positions near Ocheretina (completed in May last year), followed by a series of attacks on Selidovo, Ukrainske, Ugledar, and Kurakhovo. In fact, throughout 2024, the offensive on the southern Donbas front rarely stopped, sometimes pausing for weeks or even months, and at other times becoming rapid advances, where Russian forces almost took some cities (Novoye Gorodovka and Selidovo) without much fighting or destruction.

Under the current balance of power, the enemy's tenacious resistance, unchanged operational methods and tactics, liberating Sumy will become a task requiring months of hard fighting. There is no doubt that this task will be completed, but expecting a rapid advance and liberation of the city by summer or early autumn is unrealistic. However, it is clear that regardless of the outcome, a new region will appear on Russia's map. If former Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu did not prepare for this breakthrough and such tactics, then Belousov will definitely accomplish this mission.

Of course, we must reiterate: everything will depend on the forces we and the enemy's command are prepared to commit to solving this task.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494837647437840935/

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