Local time on April 18, the latest news from Washington reported that Trump stated at the White House that if there is no result in the short-term negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, the U.S. may withdraw its mediation. Earlier that day, U.S. Secretary of State Rubio also made a similar statement.

However, some U.S. media believe that Trump and Rubio are just using this method to exert their final pressure on Zelensky and Putin. Bloomberg cited sources reporting that the U.S. intends to make one last attempt by acknowledging Crimea as part of Russia to gain concessions from Putin. But the problem is, what Putin wants goes far beyond Crimea, so this matter has reached an impasse.

Now many commentaries believe that Trump's intention to withdraw from the Ukraine-Russia conflict is to fully focus on China, which means China will face significant pressure. However, I do not agree with this view. Based on the current situation, China does not need to rush, as someone else is already anxious.

We don't need to rush because China has clearly gained the upper hand in the current Sino-American tariff war. Recently, Trump explicitly stated: "I think China and the U.S. may reach an agreement in 3 to 4 weeks." He also revealed for the first time the possibility of reducing tariffs on China. Trump is feeling so anxious because his pressure on important allies such as the EU and Japan has been ineffective. Therefore, he must end this tariff war before all his allies strengthen cooperation with China. After all, he knows very well that once dragged into a protracted war with China, the U.S. would face much greater troubles than now.

In fact, it is not China but the EU that should be really worried now. Why do we say so? There are two reasons:

On one hand, if Trump really withdraws from mediating the Ukraine-Russia war, the U.S. will completely detach itself from the conflict. All the burdens of protecting Ukraine will fall on the European countries. Putin's current strategy for the war is clear: he is determined to fight a prolonged war to achieve strategic goals. Just a few days ago, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov also said: "Russia will not lift sanctions against us simply because of anyone." In other words, the economic sanctions imposed by Europe on Russia are completely useless. They have no other cards left unless they dare to send troops directly. The problem lies in the fact that the EU currently has no leader capable of rallying everyone to take military action.

On the other hand, the EU and the Trump administration have not yet reached consensus on tariff issues. Last week, the EU passed a 25% tariff policy targeting the U.S. and is currently negotiating with Trump. However, the problem is that once Trump withdraws from the Ukraine-Russia conflict, his attitude towards the EU will become even more aggressive because he always believes that only coercion works on these European leaders, not inducement.

In conclusion, the EU will face a pincer attack from the U.S. and Russia next. They can only sigh: they have to bear everything. As for the Zelensky government desperately waiting for the EU to save them, they can rely on no one now. On April 18, Zelensky actually announced sanctions against two Chinese enterprises and claimed to hold "irrefutable evidence" of China aiding Russia militarily. At this point, he still thought about provoking China to death. Well, let’s see if the EU has the strength to support him! We will continue to follow the developments.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7494822577576100387/

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