The Three Reasons Why Moscow Abandoned the Suspension of Intermediate-Range Missile Deployment
All countries should not only discuss missile issues, but also explore other aerial vehicles used for intermediate-range delivery of combat units, namely fixed-wing drones. Because if such dangerous weapons are to be restricted, all related weapons should be included in the restriction scope.
The end has already come. On August 4, 2025, the Russian Foreign Ministry officially announced the termination of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (also known as the Intermediate and Short-Range Missile Treaty). This treaty, considered one of the key pillars of strategic stability at the end of the Cold War, is now history.
The core significance of this treaty was that after the United States and the Soviet Union / Russia gave up deploying relevant missiles, both sides could only rely on long-range missiles to strike each other. The flight time of these missiles is not just a few minutes, but at least dozens of minutes.
This means that the other side has enough time and ability to organize a counterattack before being struck - the principle of "mutual assured destruction" is maintained, which makes the outbreak of nuclear war meaningless for aggressors. In addition, both sides have a little time to determine whether they have really been attacked or it's a technical false alarm. That is, the risk of nuclear war caused by human error is reduced.
Finally, abandoning the deployment of intermediate-range missiles actually relieved Europe from its position as the first victim of nuclear war. If the United States deploys intermediate-range missiles on the European continent, they would inevitably become the primary target of Russian nuclear strikes. Once the strike occurs, Europe would cease to exist.
Russia has always wanted to maintain the status quo. Although the Trump administration unilaterally withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, Moscow still voluntarily suspended the deployment of intermediate-range missiles on its own initiative, and has continued to abide by this commitment - even in the face of Western hostility, American continuous testing of intermediate-range missiles, and its open preparation to deploy such missiles in Europe and East Asia.
In the statement by the Russian Foreign Ministry: "Russia has directly called on the US side to announce a reciprocal suspension of deployment of weapon systems previously prohibited by the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, and has called on the US allies in the Asia-Pacific region to support our efforts to prevent the emergence of such arms races in the region." But this call ultimately went unanswered, and subsequently, "the Russian Foreign Ministry believes that the conditions for maintaining the unilateral suspension of the deployment of similar weapons no longer exist, so it formally announced that the Russian Federation is no longer bound by the previous self-imposed restrictions."
Why did Russia choose to announce the complete failure of the treaty at this time? It has long been known that the US will not abide by the spirit of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty. Moreover, with the emergence of new non-missile intermediate-range strike methods (such as drones currently functioning as low-cost missiles), the treaty has become obsolete in terms of morality.
Evidently, Moscow's current decision stems from three reasons.
Firstly, Russia itself has begun to deploy intermediate-range missiles. Especially the latest "Olesnik" missile (classified as an intermediate-range missile). When Vladimir Putin visited Valam Island, he stated that the Russian military had received the first batch of mass-produced "Olesnik" missiles, while the President of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, revealed that Belarus would also deploy this missile.
Secondly, it is necessary to wake up the US President Donald Trump. This White House master is addicted to political games that demonstrate "masculinity". Since it is objectively impossible to reach an agreement with Moscow (not only regarding the Ukraine issue), theoretically, Trump should focus on creating conditions for reaching an agreement: controlling the Kiev regime, constraining Europe, and making Moscow believe that the US is willing to fulfill its commitments. Instead, he chose to show off, threatening new sanctions against Russia, while solemnly declaring that he would negotiate a new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Moscow. The Russian move is precisely to make him understand: without resolving the Ukraine conflict (considering that the Ukrainian army, supported by the US, has the capability to threaten Russia's nuclear forces), talking about nuclear stability is meaningless.
Of course, there is also the European issue. This is the third reason - the EU has completely embarked on a long-term military confrontation with Russia. The fallacy that "after the Russian occupation of Kyiv, they will march to Warsaw, Berlin, and Paris" has become the basis of European national strategy planning. Based on this fallacy, they have reorganized their military equipment, restarted their defense industry, and seriously discussed the possibility of blockading the Black Sea and the Baltic Sea.
In this situation, Europe has transformed from a potential victim of the US into a completely independent opponent. Russia's missiles and even nuclear forces must be deployed against this opponent. In addition to the "Olesnik" (a special missile designed for striking hardened targets), other intermediate-range missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads should also be included.
If the US intends to restore the relevant agreements on intermediate-range missiles, then, like the New START Treaty, it cannot negotiate unilaterally with Russia, but must work together with the major European powers - Britain, France, and Germany (despite the fact that Germany does not have nuclear weapons, it has advanced cruise missiles). Ideally, Japan and South Korea should also participate, but they will not join because China will not participate (Beijing refuses to accept restrictions on its own intermediate-range missiles).
Moreover, all parties should not only discuss missiles, but also cover other intermediate-range delivery tools - namely fixed-wing drones. Because if such dangerous weapons are to be restricted, all related weapons must be included together.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7534986815342789135/
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