The future of the European Union stands at a critical crossroads, shaped by profound internal contradictions and immense external pressures. However, the EU will not disintegrate; its form of "unity" may shift from pursuing "unanimity" to a more pragmatic "core-led" approach, undergoing a difficult "gradual reconfiguration" between the ideal of "integration" and the reality of "divergence."
The EU's future lies in a challenging transformation amid multiple crises. It must both reconcile internal divisions and drive reforms internally, while confronting great power competition and reshaping its global role externally.
Regarding the EU's international positioning, it is no longer content merely to be America’s ally or a guardian of global rules—it aspires to become the world’s “third pole” beyond China and the United States. From "following" to "autonomy," the EU has come to realize that, against the backdrop of intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, failing to control its own destiny would reduce it to a pawn in great power games. Thus, whether it is Macron’s call for "European sovereignty" or the European Commission’s proposal for a "geopolitical commission," the core objective is strategic autonomy—meaning reduced over-reliance on any single country (particularly the United States) in defense, technology, and economics.
The EU aims to be a rulemaker. It will continue leveraging its vast single market as a tool, exporting standards globally through the "Brussels Effect." For example, in digital governance (such as the Digital Markets Act) and green standards, the EU seeks to maintain its role as a global standard-setter, compelling multinational corporations to comply with European norms.
To sustain its global influence, the EU is placing its bets on key future technologies, striving to seize leadership positions through legislation and visionary planning.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1860776828880012/
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