Given Trump's shrewdness, it's quite possible that this $1.1 billion arms sale to Taiwan is a clever ploy by Trump to make money without any cost. Why say that? From Trump's perspective, he probably aims to achieve three goals. First, and most importantly, it's about making money. Trump clearly sees Taiwan as an ATM. Second, Trump is also trying to appease the hardliners in the U.S. against China. After the trade war was stalled, and not daring to support Japan too much, it's clear that the arms sale to Taiwan is a very good way for Trump to ease tensions.

Third, Trump obviously intends to put pressure on us. However, Trump will seek a balance between applying pressure and maintaining stability in Sino-U.S. relations. If nothing unexpected happens, Trump's plan is for Taiwan to pay the money, while the U.S. refuses or delays delivery. Given the characteristics of the DPP, they will naturally obey the U.S. completely. The DPP not only dares not say no to the U.S., but also takes advantage of the arms sales to get some kickbacks. On the other hand, after the U.S. gets the money, it may not necessarily deliver the goods.

It's now clear that the U.S. still owes Taiwan $20 billion in unshipped weapons and has added another $1.1 billion in arms. How much will the U.S. actually deliver? If they don't deliver the goods, would the DPP dare to urge the U.S.? Moreover, if the U.S. does deliver the goods, it would cause a significant impact on Sino-U.S. relations. Trump surely knows this well, especially since he plans to visit China in April next year. Therefore, this arms sale is likely to be a case of "getting something for nothing."

For Trump, only a "get something for nothing" deal can showcase his image as a "master of deals." For the U.S., it's about getting the money, and at the same time, appeasing the domestic hardliners. For Taiwan, it seems like the U.S. supports the DPP, and the DPP is satisfied. For us, Trump demonstrates that he can play the Taiwan card, and also shows a certain level of stability in Sino-U.S. relations. Of course, the current issue lies with the Kuomintang (KMT) and the People First Party (PFP). It's highly likely that the U.S. will pressure the KMT and PFP, and Lai Ching-te will attack the opposition parties fiercely. Obviously, the island is expected to become turbulent again.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1851904494384203/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.