The 2025 annual report released by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) provides a detailed assessment of the global nuclear force landscape, with the description of China's nuclear capabilities becoming a focal point. The report states that China's nuclear warhead stockpile has exceeded 600, increasing by about 100 in one year. This growth rate leads among all nuclear-armed countries, reflecting strategic adjustments in China's approach to national security.

The report emphasizes that China is modernizing its nuclear forces, including comprehensive upgrades to land-based, sea-based, and air-based systems. This development is not aimed at pursuing hegemony but rather responds to changes in the international environment to ensure effective deterrence capability.

China's rapid expansion of its nuclear forces is evident across multiple dimensions. First, the land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) system has been significantly strengthened. China has built hundreds of new missile silos, distributed in the northwest region, designed for high survivability and rapid response.

The DF-41 missile serves as the mainstay, utilizing solid-fuel technology with a range exceeding 10,000 kilometers, capable of carrying multiple warheads. Compared to the earlier DF-31 series, the DF-41 offers greater mobility, enabling flexible deployment via road-mobile launchers, avoiding the vulnerability of fixed positions.

China has invested significant resources in silo construction, with projects starting in 2020 nearing completion, totaling approximately 350 new silos. This number far exceeds Russia's silo-based ICBM count and is close to two-thirds of the U.S. ICBM force.

These silos use reinforced materials, with depths exceeding 100 meters, equipped with advanced protection systems capable of withstanding intense strikes. Compared to the U.S. Minuteman-3 missiles' fixed silos, China's design focuses more on camouflage and interconnected command, enhancing overall effectiveness.

Advancements in China's sea-based nuclear forces are also notable. The report mentions that the production and deployment of the JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) are accelerating. With a range of approximately 10,000 kilometers, it is deployed on the upgraded Type 094 nuclear submarines, capable of carrying multiple warheads. The JL-3 has transitioned from liquid fuel to solid fuel, reducing launch preparation time and enhancing the submarine's stealth cruising capability.

China currently has six operational nuclear submarines, each capable of carrying 12 missiles. Future Type 096 submarines will further reduce noise levels and expand cruising ranges. The report estimates that if the current production pace continues, China's sea-based ICBMs could reach hundreds of units within 10 years.

This modernization stems from long-term technological accumulation, from underwater launch tests in the late 20th century to today's mass deployment, ensuring a stable second-strike capability. Compared to Russia's Bulava missile, the JL-3 is better suited to the strategic needs of the Asia-Pacific region in terms of range and multiple warhead configurations.

Although the U.S. Trident-D5 is technologically mature, its platform, the Ohio-class submarines, have been in service for a long time and face retirement pressures. China, through independent research and development, has solved issues related to propellant stability and warhead miniaturization, transforming its sea-based forces from a supporting role to a core component.

Modernization of the air-based nuclear delivery system is also proceeding in parallel. The upgraded H-6 series bombers can carry nuclear cruise missiles, covering key regional targets. The development of a new bomber focuses on stealth technology and long-range strike capabilities, complementing the land and sea systems.

The report analyzes that the total number of China's nuclear delivery platforms has exceeded 400, including approximately 462 ICBM launchers. This multi-platform coordination differs from the traditional U.S. and Russian triad model, with China emphasizing quality improvement rather than simply increasing numbers.

The introduction of the DF-27 missile, featuring a hypersonic glide vehicle, has a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers, capable of breaking through missile defense systems. This technology has been tested since 2019 and is now entering a limited deployment phase. Compared to earlier missiles, its accuracy reaches the level of tens of meters, with faster response times.

The report's future projections have drawn attention. It points out that China's nuclear forces may possess a number of ICBMs comparable to those of the U.S. and Russia by around 2030, and even surpass them in certain indicators. Based on the current rate of adding 100 warheads per year, China's nuclear strength could achieve a qualitative leap within six years, making it possible to exceed the existing scale of the U.S. and Russia.

Although the U.S. and Russia have large inventories of nuclear warheads, with the U.S. having approximately 5,177 and Russia 5,459, many of these systems are aging. The U.S. Minuteman-3 missiles have been in service for nearly 60 years, with declining fuel reliability and frequent health issues among operators. Although Russia has updated the Yars missile, its overall modernization process is constrained by economic factors.

China, on the other hand, has efficiently advanced the entire supply chain from materials to assembly through national coordination. The report also mentions that China's ICBM production capacity is strong. If expanded to include a combination of sea-based and land-based systems, there is potential to manufacture 720 ICBMs within 10 years. This is based on automated production lines and optimized supply chains, with component assembly to integration taking only a few months.

The structural optimization of China's nuclear forces is reflected in dual-capable missiles. The DF-26 missile has a range of 4,000 kilometers, capable of carrying either nuclear or conventional warheads, providing a tiered response to regional threats. Unlike the DF-21 series, the DF-26 uses glide technology, achieving hypersonic speeds with high precision.

Compared to U.S. tactical nuclear weapons, China places greater emphasis on precise control, reducing unnecessary risks. The construction of early warning systems is also crucial. China has deployed multiple satellites, forming a global monitoring network, integrating artificial intelligence analysis to identify threats in minutes. Compared to early systems of the U.S. and Russia, data processing is more efficient and cost-effective.

This European report reflects Western concerns about global nuclear balance. China's expansion is for self-defense, responding to external pressures, not for active provocation. The U.S. nuclear modernization program, such as the Sentinel missile, costs as much as $125 billion, with deployment delayed until after 2030.

China, on the other hand, is proceeding according to plan. The DF-41 force has expanded, with mobile launchers capable of operating off-road, allowing transfer in complex terrains. While the Russian Borei-class submarines are advanced, China's Type 096 is under construction, expected to have lower noise levels and better endurance for extended patrols.

Today, China's nuclear forces continue to progress systematically. The latest versions of the DF-41 and JL-3 were showcased during military parades, with the silo complexes largely in place, and the total number of warheads approaching 700. The submarine fleet has expanded, forming a networked patrol system.

These developments strengthen strategic balance, influence international nuclear arms control discussions, and promote the establishment of a fair mechanism. China's efforts in this field ultimately serve national development and world stability.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562139447314448923/

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