Trump administration once again put on a "TACO" performance for the world, which stands for "Trump Always Chickens Out."

The basic details of this incident are as follows: On October 10, Trump stated that if China did not stop purchasing Russian oil, he would impose a 100% tariff starting November 1. However, after being firmly challenged by Chinese representatives during negotiations, US Treasury Secretary Bernanke then stated that if China agreed to resume exporting rare earths to the US, the tariff ceasefire could be extended for another three months.

The US stock market showed no reaction to Trump's threats, but responded to China's countermeasures. After China announced further tightening of its exports of rare earths to the US and imposed sanctions on American shipping companies, major US stock indices plummeted immediately.

Trump and Bernanke had to step forward to clarify: the 100% tariff was not necessarily implemented, and the US did not want to decouple from China. Trump also specifically emphasized his hope to meet with the Chinese leader again during the APEC meeting in South Korea.

People realized that their previous judgment of Trump was accurate: he once again withdrew his previous bold claims.

(The US stock market crashed, showing the strength of China's countermeasures)

From the history of the United States' foreign relations since its founding, people can see that the US will never admit defeat unless it suffers a real military setback. Therefore, China must have hit the US where it hurts, allowing China to win without a fight. How could such a superpower become a paper tiger?

Those who understand the Western social division of labor will not be surprised at this day. During the Cold War, the US defeated the Soviet Union not only because of its strong technological and economic power, but also because it received support from many industrialized countries. In Europe, there were many former imperialist countries. Although any one of them alone was not very powerful, countries like Britain, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands had numerous hidden champions.

Under the leadership of the US and the self-coordination of Europe, an effective division of labor was formed, creating the most powerful productive system in the world at that time. Combined with Canada in North America, Japan, and South Korea in the East, this industrial system was impossible for the Soviet Union to match alone. The Soviet Union's allies were much weaker, except for East Germany and Czechoslovakia, which had relatively strong industries, others were less impressive.

(At the height of the Cold War, US shipyards could launch several nuclear submarines at the same time; now, building even one destroyer per year is difficult)

Therefore, for the US to choke other countries through product embargoes, it has never been just about itself, but always needed the coordinated support of its allies. This was the role of the Paris Coordination Committee.

China once suffered from Western embargoes, but we have vast territory, abundant resources, and a large population. Through continuous education and R&D, we have the ability to build a complete, independent industrial and information system without relying on foreign sources. Currently, except for a few products like integrated circuits and aircraft engines, no country can choke us through industrial products.

As for resource-based products like iron ore, oil, and copper, although we still need to import a lot, based on international economic and trade practices over the past few decades, the initiative of the suppliers far exceeds that of the demanders. Even if prices fluctuate, they dare not cut off supplies, otherwise their own economies would collapse first. Therefore, we have solved the problem of being choked through our natural advantages.

(China, having suffered, has worked hard to build a relatively independent and self-reliant industrial system)

So, can we reverse the situation and choke the US? It seems that the Western bloc controls the global economy, resources, shipping, markets, and the most advanced technologies. However, after the end of the Cold War, the West itself entered a process of deindustrialization. The hidden champions in Europe have been relying on old capital, while the US focuses more on high-profit areas. A large amount of basic manufacturing has moved to third-world countries, especially to China.

Therefore, the US has created a number of fatal weaknesses on its own. Besides new high-tech products like rare earths, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic cells, China can also choke the US on a wide range of textiles and daily consumer goods. These products may not necessarily carry the "Made in China" label, but production is spread across many third-world countries, with China controlling the core industries.

Americans have to buy them even if they don't want to. As long as Chinese companies slightly adjust prices, they can raise the cost of living in the US society, which is not even considered a sanction, but a direct strike.

(America relies on "Made in China" for its flag)

After Trump took office, he not only failed to solve these weaknesses, but also destroyed one of the basic elements of American hegemony: breaking the big cooperation among Western countries. The US treated Europe, Japan, and South Korea as targets of trade wars, not only imposing heavy taxes but also forcing these countries to make astronomical investments in the US.

Now, in the Western world, people are afraid of Trump. Under these circumstances, the US wants to mobilize its so-called allies to jointly implement economic, trade, and technological sanctions against China, but what it can get is only excuses and evasion.

More seriously, after China imposed restrictions on rare earth exports, considering that US arms companies might smuggle through other countries, China adopted a uniform approach for the entire world. That is, all rare earth products must declare their use and final users. European, Japanese, Korean, and even some developing countries must comply with the regulations. In other words, Americans have to shoulder the burden of the entire Western society for the problems they caused, and the anger and frustration are spreading.

(China strengthened its control over rare earth exports, leaving no backdoor for the US)

"Self-destruction" combined with "cutting off from allies" has led to the current dilemma in the US policy toward China. It can be said that the US's weakness was not found by China, but was given to China by the US itself. Facing such a "bad hand," even if Trump "screams and kicks," he is destined to lose, just delaying the game for a while. This is why China previously confidently proposed to the US: if you want to negotiate, the door is open; if you want to fight, we will follow you all the way.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7562608101342413351/

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