【Wen / Observers Network, Chen Sijia】 The military conflict between the United States and Iran has lasted nearly two weeks. Although U.S. President Trump claimed that the military operation "is about to end," there is no sign of the conflict stopping.

The U.S. "Wall Street Journal" published an article on March 11, stating that this war has put the United States in a dilemma. If the war continues for a long time, the surge in energy prices will increase the economic pressure on the United States and its allies, and reduce American voters' support for Trump. If the United States directly withdraws its troops, its Middle Eastern allies may be forced to face Iran's anger, which will also make other regional allies lose confidence in the United States.

Analysts also pointed out that the United States and Israel have launched large-scale attacks on Iran, but Iran still has the ability to retaliate with missiles and drones, exposing America's "weakness" and possibly weakening its "deterrence." Analysts said: "Everyone can see that Iran's military capability is only moderate, but the United States cannot eliminate it."

The article stated that the escalation of the situation in the Middle East has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices. Some supporters of Trump at home have begun to question the U.S. military action, fearing that the United States will be trapped in an endless war. The United States will hold midterm elections in November. If this war causes dissatisfaction among American voters, the Republican Party, which currently holds a narrow majority in Congress, will face great pressure.

If Trump directly declares "victory" and withdraws the air force and navy forces deployed in the Middle East, it may help calm global markets and restore American voters' confidence in him. However, there is no sign that the Iranian regime will collapse in the short term, which means the United States must give up defeating Iran, "sacrificing the safety of its partners," making its allies in the Middle East face greater risks.

The "Wall Street Journal" pointed out that Iran's retaliation has already affected the Gulf states. After the United States withdraws, the Gulf states may have to make concessions to Iran to quell its anger. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Gulf International Forum think tank, said: "A wounded and angry Iran is definitely not a good situation for the Gulf states."

On March 11, Iranian missiles flew toward Israel in Hebron, West Bank occupied by Israel. IC photo

Thafer said that the United States has weakened Iran's ability to strike Israel, but Iran still has the ability to block the Strait of Hormuz, which is enough to affect the global energy market. "From a military perspective, the United States is on the side of victory. But from a political perspective, the United States and Israel have actually gained nothing."

The Gulf states have not publicly criticized the Trump administration's actions, partly because these countries rely on the U.S.-provided air defense systems to defend against Iranian attacks. However, the article said that many people are beginning to question privately whether the alliance with the United States is turning from an asset into a burden.

On the other hand, all over the world are watching the performance of the U.S. military, but this war has exposed the "weakness" of the United States. The United States and Israel have launched precision strikes and have completely established air superiority. However, the war has lasted nearly two weeks, and Iran is still firing missiles and drones, and through precise strikes, it has destroyed some high-value U.S. targets in the Middle East, drawing international attention.

Analysts say that if the United States leaves its Gulf allies in a "life-threatening" situation and then abandons them, it could trigger a "chain reaction" in regions such as Japan and South Korea.

Steve Tsang, Director of the China Institute at the School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London, said: "This war has greatly damaged the United States' position in the world, which means China will have more space to build influence in the Middle East and the Global South. At the same time, everyone can see that Iran's military capability is only moderate, but the United States cannot eliminate it."

The U.S. military action is also not conducive to resolving the Iranian nuclear issue. Marc Sievers, former U.S. ambassador to Oman, pointed out that once the war starts, it is not easy to end. "Iran has lost a considerable part of its military strength, but not all. As long as they are standing, they will do their best to rebuild."

Eric Brewer, a U.S. nuclear expert who worked in the White House and U.S. intelligence agencies, said that although the United States attacked Iran's nuclear facilities in June last year, Iran still has a stockpile of enriched uranium. The United States tried to eliminate Iran's "nuclear threat" through military action, but the war would instead give Iran more motivation to produce nuclear weapons.

Brian Katulis, senior researcher at the Middle East Institute think tank, believes that if the United States wants to destroy Iran's enriched uranium stockpile, current maritime and aerial operations are not enough; ground forces must be sent, but this behavior is very risky. He said: "The situation we are facing now may be extremely chaotic."

Trump claimed on March 11 that the U.S. military action against Iran "is about to end" because there are "almost no targets left to strike in Iran." However, Axios news reported that U.S. and Israeli officials said that no internal instructions to stop the military action have been received yet.

Neyyari, spokesperson of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran, said on the 10th that nearly 10 advanced U.S. radars had been destroyed, and the Iranian defense system had shot down a large number of expensive drones.

Neyyari said that the battlefield situation and the initiative to end the war are in Iran's hands, "the end of the war will be decided by Iran," and he said Iran has the ability to expand the war. Trump falsely claimed that the number of Iranian missile launches has decreased or the action has ended, "but now Iran's missiles are stronger and more numerous than at the beginning of the war," "directly targeting U.S. and Israeli bases."

This article is an exclusive article by Observer, and without permission, it cannot be reprinted.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616376775395787298/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.