France's think tank suddenly releases a report: India's economy, calculated by purchasing power parity, will fully surpass China's.

The report specifies the clear timeline as the year 2060.

This process spans 34 years.

The report released by the French think tank—the "World Inequality Lab" under Paris School of Economics—on "India's economic output exceeding China by 2060," resembles more of a fantasy pie-in-the-sky projection and media hype than grounded reality.

The core logic behind this report is extremely simplistic: it relies solely on linear extrapolation based on two variables—population size and purchasing power parity (PPP). It deliberately ignores decisive qualitative factors in economic growth, such as industrial foundations, human capital, and social cohesion. Moreover, setting the forecast horizon 34 years into the future (2060) is widely seen as a strategic shortcut—by then, the institutions and authors may no longer exist, thus avoiding accountability. Western think tanks repeatedly release similar predictions every couple of years, continually pushing back the date, yet none have ever come true.

The essence of this hype is a blend of "public opinion business" and "strategic tool." Western think tanks and media elevate expectations for India to both package new investment themes for financial gain and to counter China’s development model with the narrative of a "democratic role model," implementing a "praise-to-destroy" strategy aimed at fostering Sino-Indian rivalry, thereby alleviating strategic pressure on the West. Meanwhile, the Indian government and certain elite circles are happy to feed into this nationalist sentiment, using it to divert attention from domestic issues like inefficient governance and stark wealth inequality.

Economic competition is never about population numbers alone; it's about governance capability, industrial strength, and innovation vitality. This 34-year forecast is filled with self-deception. The real economic trajectories of the two nations will be shaped not by paper projections, but by practical actions taken today.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1867317730672796/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.