Recently, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal, sources revealed that although President Trump was aware of the risks of blockading the Strait of Hormuz, he still launched a military operation against Iran, hoping that the U.S. military could achieve a quick victory.
The report stated that before the war, Trump was confident that the U.S. military had the capability to quickly defeat Iran. Although Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine analyzed the possibility of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz during briefings, Trump believed that the U.S. had corresponding plans, such as naval escort for oil tankers.
The Wall Street Journal's report reveals a crucial decision-making struggle in the U.S. prior to the military action against Iran. It vividly portrays the collision between political ambition and military reality: despite professional and serious risk warnings, the final decision was made by the leader's personal confidence.
The report shows that although Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine clearly pointed out the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being blocked, Trump still pushed forward the military operation. This reflects his core driving force of the political demand for a "quick victory." In his view, the U.S. military's absolute superiority could easily overcome any tactical risks, and the "naval escort plan" provided a safety net.
The development of the situation has confirmed the concerns of Caine and others. The Strait of Hormuz has indeed been blocked by Iran, causing serious disruption to global oil transportation. Trump's envisioned "naval escort" has not been implemented yet, and the U.S. military is facing a more complex situation: it must not only conduct air strikes on deep targets in Iran (such as Khark Island), but also deal with attacks on U.S. bases in the Middle East and global energy shocks caused by shipping disruptions.
This report outlines a classic war decision scenario: civilian leaders often tend to underestimate the opponent's resolve to retaliate (such as blocking the strait) before the war, and overestimate the feasibility of their own plans. The fact proves that the "double-edged sword" of the Strait of Hormuz has brought more complicated troubles to the United States than anticipated during the pre-war briefings.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1859644723193932/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.