By | Ruiguan Jingwei

Editor | Ruiguan Jingwei

On October 23, 2025, the Lithuanian political arena made a major announcement: Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė officially dismissed Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė, triggered by an intense conflict over the defense budget.

However, those familiar with international dynamics will find that the fired defense minister is also involved in more complex controversies — three months ago, she had just made a high-profile visit to the Philippines, not only signing defense cooperation documents but also openly stirring up the South China Sea issue and confronting China.

Why did a domestic personnel change lead to cross-continental diplomatic entanglements? What strategic difficulties does this budget dispute reveal about Lithuania?

To understand the origin and development of this incident, it is first necessary to clarify Šakalienė's dual identity: both an executor of Lithuania's defense policy and a controversial figure who stirs regional tensions.

In early July 2025, Šakalienė suddenly visited the Philippines, and the two countries quickly signed a memorandum of understanding on defense cooperation, stipulating deepened cooperation in areas such as cybersecurity, maritime security, and ammunition production.

During the visit, she exaggerated the so-called "common threats," claiming that Lithuania and the Philippines "face almost identical hostile neighbors, using highly consistent methods," directly pointing the finger at China's legitimate activities in the South China Sea, even encouraging the Philippines to publicly condemn Chinese actions.

This overstepping statement immediately sparked doubts about her diplomatic moderation. Unexpectedly, just three months later, she left the scene due to internal conflicts.

Šakalienė's resignation, on the surface, was due to internal budget disagreements, but it actually exposed deep divisions in Lithuania's defense policy. As a Baltic country bordering Russia, Lithuania has long regarded countering Russia's "potential aggression" as its core security goal, continuously increasing its defense spending.

According to the EU's defense white paper published in March 2025, Lithuania has pledged to raise defense spending to 5%-6% of GDP between 2026 and 2030. This proportion far exceeds most EU member states. However, there were serious disagreements within the government regarding the 2026 budget allocation.

Šakalienė's Ministry of Defense had hinted that next year's military spending might be lower than planned, which she found extremely unsatisfactory. She then held an informal meeting with online opinion leaders and journalists on October 14 to try to pressure the government through public opinion to increase the budget.

This "behind-the-scenes lobbying" completely enraged Šimonytė. After meeting with President Gitanas Nauseda on October 23, Šimonytė clearly announced the dismissal to the media, stating that events in the past few weeks became the catalyst. Although the decision came earlier than expected, it was inevitable.

She listed several issues with Šakalienė: instances of dishonesty, complete lack of willingness to cooperate, poor team management, and many other details that needed to be resolved. Šimonytė admitted that making this decision was regrettable for her, a difficult moment, but it had to be done.

Faced with the dismissal allegations, Šakalienė gave a completely different account. She posted on Facebook that she was not dismissed but resigned voluntarily, and her resignation letter had been submitted at 10 a.m. on October 23.

She admitted that working with her required a "strong heart" and revealed that she still hoped to cooperate with the prime minister a month ago, but there were fundamental differences in their approaches to strengthening national defense, ultimately leading to the inability to continue working together.

To support her position, Šakalienė publicly released two key pieces of evidence: one was a photo of a budget slide from a government meeting on October 1, showing the defense budget accounted for 4.87% of GDP, and the other was an email sent by the Ministry of Finance on the evening of October 14, indicating the defense budget had been increased to 5.38% of GDP.

She emphasized that even reaching 5.38% still left a funding gap, with some planned procurement projects being forced to cancel. The defense budget should at least reach 5.5% of GDP to meet the needs.

Regarding the budget data dispute raised by Šakalienė, Šimonytė did not directly respond to specific figures, only stating that interpreting the draft version was a strange practice.

She used a common analogy to explain her stance: when to season the soup doesn't matter, what matters is the final result. Budget issues are no different; the final outcome is the key.

This avoidance of core data has instead made the public more curious about the real reasons behind the budget adjustments—was it a normal policy debate or, as Šakalienė implied, was there human intervention to compress defense funds?

It is worth noting that Šakalienė is not the first minister to leave after the appointment of Ruggiene. After the new government was formed in August, Culture Minister Ignotas Adomavičius announced his resignation just a week into his tenure in October.

The reason was that the government allocated the culture portfolio to the populist party "Nemunas' Dawn," which caused strong opposition and protests from the Lithuanian cultural community. Subsequently, the Ministry of Culture was taken over by the Social Democratic Party, and they are still looking for a new minister.

Within two months, two ministers have left, reflecting the fragility of the coalition government in Lithuania. The contradictions among different parties and factions in terms of policy orientation and resource distribution have gradually become public.

The vacancy of the defense minister position has sparked widespread concern about national security. As a key player in the strategic location of the Baltic countries, Lithuania's defense arrangements not only affect its own security but also influence the regional military layout.

President Nausėda's Chief Advisor on National Security, Davidas Matulionis, clearly stated that selecting the right defense minister is crucial because the defense budget is an absolute priority for the government and the prime minister. This budget holds historical significance.

He emphasized that this is not just an internal security issue but also concerns Lithuania's international image. The future deployment of the German brigade and the U.S. military presence depend on this, and everything is at a critical moment.

Nausėda himself had previously welcomed France's proposal for a "nuclear umbrella," demonstrating Lithuania's high dependence on external security guarantees.

Currently, the list of potential candidates for the defense minister has been discussed with the president, but Ruggiene has not yet announced the specific names. Before the new minister is formally appointed, the Interior Minister, Vladislovas Kondratovičius, will temporarily lead the key department of the Ministry of Defense.

There is widespread attention on whether the new defense minister will continue Šakalienė's foreign policy line, especially whether there will be any adjustments in positions on international issues such as the South China Sea.

After all, Šakalienė's "hardline style" is not only reflected in the budget struggle, but also runs through her diplomatic actions. This strategy of "pressuring internally and provoking externally" has already caused a lot of controversy.

From the perspective of the broader context of EU defense integration, Lithuania's budget dispute also reflects the general dilemma of member states. The EU's 2025 defense white paper clearly states that if member states increase their defense spending by an additional 1.5% of GDP annually for the next four years, they can be exempt from EU budget rules.

The Baltic countries, fearing Russian threats, are proactive about increasing military spending, but when it comes to domestic budget allocation, they inevitably fall into the vortex of party struggles and interest balance. Šakalienė's departure is essentially a concentrated outbreak of this contradiction between "strategic needs" and "internal coordination."

Where will this personnel change eventually lead? Can Kondratovičius, who is temporarily taking over the Ministry of Defense, smoothly transition? Will the new minister's proposal for a 5.38% defense budget be approved by the parliament? On international issues such as the South China Sea, will Lithuania adjust its previous radical stance?

The answers to these questions not only relate to the internal politics of a small country but may also affect the delicate balance of the regional security structure. After all, in the complex international game, every decision made by the defense minister may trigger chain reactions beyond expectations.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7565890032536437299/

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