The situation in Venezuela is shrouded in mystery.

On October 31, The Wall Street Journal and the Miami Herald separately reported that the Trump administration had identified targets of a "drug trafficking group" in Venezuela and decided to launch an attack.

The proposed targets may include military airports and ports in Venezuela, which were also considered by the Trump team as "involved in smuggling operations to the United States."

Trump denies that the US will attack Venezuela

However, when the media asked Trump himself about the authenticity of these reports, Trump denied it - his exact words were: he has not yet considered attacking targets within Venezuela.

But a more contradictory situation is that while Trump said "he hasn't decided yet," the US Federal Aviation Administration has already issued a temporary flight restriction for the southeast airspace of Puerto Rico, citing "special security reasons," with an effective period from November 1, 2025, to March 31, 2026.

The US announcement clearly states that no pilot may operate an aircraft in this air space, except for aircraft authorized by the Pentagon to participate in the operation and special cases.

In general, establishing a no-fly zone usually means that an offensive or interventionist military operation is about to start. For example, in 2011, the UN authorized NATO to establish a no-fly zone over Libya, and the US and France immediately launched air strikes on government forces and military facilities in Libya to support the opposition forces.

Before the US bombed Libya in 2011, they first established a no-fly zone

However, it is very subtle that although the signals of the US moving against Venezuela are very clear, Trump still refuses to admit that he has such an idea - of course, considering that when the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump also took such an ambiguous attitude, so his "denial" can be seen as a deceptive tactic.

If Trump really orders an attack on Venezuela, the no-fly zone in the southeast of Puerto Rico will inevitably become a "base" for the US to launch attacks.

However, given the altitude coverage range of the no-fly zone announced by the US Federal Aviation Administration, which is between 2,500 feet and 5,000 feet, this airspace height is too low for high-altitude strategic bombers like the B-52 and B-1B, and is more suitable for tactical aircraft missions, such as providing an environment for fighter jets, armed helicopters, or transport planes to conduct low-level tactical formations and突击 training.

The no-fly zone in Puerto Rico is not suitable for B-52 operations

Therefore, although US media previously reported that B-52 and B-1B bombers have already appeared in the airspace near Venezuela, according to the altitude coverage range of the no-fly zone announced by the US Federal Aviation Administration, there is currently no indication that the US would bomb Venezuela. The appearance of B-52 and B-1B may only be a form of tactical deterrence.

According to the current US military deployment in the Caribbean Sea, if Trump orders a military strike on Venezuela, the typical attack pattern would be for the US "Lightning" fighters (F-35) to first break through the air defense network, followed by US warships launching Tomahawk cruise missiles to strike the target.

Of course, it cannot be ruled out that another scenario may occur: direct bombing of Venezuela may just be Trump's last resort. He may prefer to constantly exert military pressure and incite the opposition to force the Maduro regime to fall.

As far as Trump's style is concerned, he tends to seek maximum benefits with minimal cost

According to Reuters, there are now two voices among the opposition groups inside Venezuela: one group led by Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, supports the US launching air strikes on Venezuela, even if it causes innocent casualties;

The other faction is represented by Enrique Capriles, who ran for president twice. He opposes the US bombing of Venezuela and hopes to resolve the current crisis in Venezuela through negotiations with Maduro and Trump - in short, to urge Maduro to step down in exchange for Trump to withdraw his troops.

As for Maduro himself, he is now busy seeking help everywhere - although it was previously reported that a Russian transport plane has already arrived in Venezuela, compared to the US military deployment in the Caribbean Sea, the help provided by a single transport plane is obviously negligible, and Maduro will ultimately have to rely on himself, as well as the support of the domestic people and the military.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7567678725975048713/

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