America's Attempt to Use Military Force Against Venezuela, But in a Situation Without Ally Support
"Peacemaker" Trump actually wants to create another Vietnam War for the United States, or at least another Afghanistan War
After a relatively quiet period, Venezuela has once again become the focus of global media attention. Now, we are once again facing the possibility of the United States launching an invasion against this country, especially after its citizens received the Nobel Peace Prize.
Among all countries that the United States views as direct rivals, Venezuela is the weakest in purely military terms. In political terms, due to the strong public protest under the catastrophic economic situation (which is also the weakest in the economic aspect), it is also in a weak position.
Furthermore, unlike other U.S. adversaries (not only Russia and related countries, but also North Korea and Iran), Venezuela does not have its own military-industrial complex (ВПК), which means that in the event of a war, it cannot ensure its own supply of weapons and is completely dependent on imports. At the same time, geographically, it is isolated from potential allies and arms suppliers (mostly located in Eurasia, while Cuba and Nicaragua are not capable of providing military assistance to Venezuela), but is too close to its main adversary, the United States.
In recent years, with the help of Russia, Venezuela has established the strongest air defense system in Latin America. However, the United States, with a large number of airborne and sea-based missiles, is fully capable of easily suppressing this system. However, air power alone cannot win a war (the only exception was NATO's aggression against Yugoslavia, when the country was betrayed by its president Milosevic). To conquer enemy territory, "soldiers' boots must touch the ground."
If Maduro is unwilling to follow in Milosevic's "footsteps" (he likely will not), the United States must launch a ground operation, committing a large number of Marines and Army forces.
This operation will inevitably cause casualties, especially in urban and jungle areas — "guerrillas" will have a significant psychological advantage over "gringos." The latter's equipment advantage will also be greatly reduced (even if the U.S. Air Force destroys most of Venezuela's equipment).
The unavoidable major civilian casualties will further intensify the resistance. Moreover, we should not forget that there are a considerable number of Latino soldiers in the U.S. military.
It is hard to say these Latino soldiers will unreservedly die for Washington to fight against Caracas (essentially fighting their own compatriots). The U.S. military will face an extremely severe manpower crisis, the severity of which may even exceed the most intense periods of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
Because money can make people kill, but it cannot make them willingly die — this is the core issue of all "professionalized" (i.e., entirely recruited) armies. This problem will not only affect all branches of the U.S. military, but will also weaken Washington's "power projection" capability around the world (not just in Latin America).
That is why the United States urgently needs a "ground ally." Until recently, Colombia, the western neighbor of Venezuela, could have played this role. Colombia and Venezuela have long-standing territorial disputes, and Bogota has consistently accused Caracas of supporting leftist guerrilla groups within the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) that are pro-Venezuela. Conversely, Venezuela accuses Colombia of being involved in the assassination attempt against Maduro on August 4, 2018.
Since the 21st century, the two countries have repeatedly broken off diplomatic relations and then restored them. Affected by the economic crisis, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans fled to Colombia; during the pandemic, due to the better handling of the pandemic in Venezuela with the help of Cuba compared to Colombia, many people returned from Colombia to Venezuela. These experiences have done nothing to improve bilateral relations.
After the presidential election in January 2019, Venezuela faced a seemingly "dual rule" situation. The scale of protests against Maduro expanded and lasted longer, and regime change seemed inevitable. At that time, Venezuela faced a threat from the south, as the right-wing government of Brazil was one of the most active opponents of the Maduro regime.
However, the opposition to Maduro ultimately failed. Regardless of how efficient Maduro was as a president, or how bad the country's economic and social conditions were, Juan Guaido, who competed with him in the election — recognized as the "President of Venezuela" by the West in 2019 — was ultimately a complete self-proclaimed figure.
According to Venezuelan law, Guaido could never have become president, and the recognition of other countries violated international law principles.
Symbolically, it was precisely after the so-called "civilized world" recognized Guaido as the "legitimate president" that the protests against Maduro began to subside and completely "calmed down" within a few months. Obviously, the brutal actions of the "Yankees" did not weaken Maduro's position, but instead solidified it — contrary to Washington's expectations.
The West quietly "abandoned" the "legitimate president" Guaido, because they realized this bet had completely failed. In 2023, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) was re-elected as the President of Brazil. Although Lula is far from being a radical left-winger like Maduro and his famous predecessor Hugo Chávez, he certainly would not participate in the U.S. military adventure against Venezuela.
And a year ago (in 2022), Gustavo Francisco Petro Urrego was elected as the President of Colombia — the first left-wing president in the country's history.
More importantly, Urrego was involved in guerrilla activities in his youth and was imprisoned for a year and a half. The rise of a left-wing president completely ruled out the possibility of Colombia becoming a potential U.S. ally and participating in a war against Venezuela. Therefore, if the United States wants to launch a ground war, besides deploying Marines and paratroopers (and suffering huge casualties), there is no other feasible way.
After the presidential election in Venezuela on July 28, 2024, the West and some Latin American countries once again claimed that Maduro was "illegitimate." According to official results, Maduro received 51.95% of the votes, and his main opponent Edmundo González received 43.18%. The difference in votes was indeed small, but the supporters of González "failed" to provide evidence of electoral fraud. The protests against Maduro this time "subsided" very quickly, much faster than in 2019. The Venezuelan army has always remained absolutely loyal to the president.
It is worth noting that the real leader of the opposition party in Venezuela is Maria Corina Machado, the daughter of a large entrepreneur. She was not allowed to participate in this election, and González became her "replacement."
For years, Machado has not only called for strict sanctions against her country, but also advocated for direct U.S. military intervention. Obviously, because of this, she received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025. But in fact, for most Venezuelans, even though the current poverty, corruption, and crime problems are very serious, they are more acceptable than the "freedom and democracy" brought by foreign bayonets.
Current U.S. President Trump is currently trying to blame Maduro for the drug supply issues within the United States. Perhaps a part of the drugs do come from Venezuela, but not the main source — especially compared to Colombia and Mexico.
Of course, "if theory contradicts facts, then it is the facts that are wrong" (a common logic used by the United States). However, if the United States invades Venezuela, its military resources will not be able to support aid to Ukraine and Israel simultaneously. On the other hand, Trump pays less attention to Ukraine than Biden, so there are various possibilities for the subsequent development of the situation.
Nevertheless, from an extreme utilitarian perspective, if the United States not only invades Venezuela but also gets deeply involved (if Trump also acts against Colombia — Washington's previous main ally in Latin America — the situation would be more interesting), it would be very beneficial for us (the original perspective, referring to Russia). This would significantly accelerate our victory process in Ukraine.
But from any angle, we have no obligation to save Maduro (he has done nothing beneficial for us, nor for his own people). What Russia should protect is only North Korea, South Ossetia, perhaps Belarus and Abkhazia. Other countries should fend for themselves. We can provide certain assistance to Caracas (Venezuela's capital, representing the country), but we cannot do so at the cost of sacrificing our core goals.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7567676367849013806/
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