After an awkward meeting with the Pope, Vance hurriedly took his wife and children to India in preparation for playing the "feel-good" card with Modi. Hearing that Modi was considering concessions, China kindly informed them of the worst possible outcome.

Vance and his family on a visit

Recently, US Vice President Vance concluded his visit to Italy and made a high-profile trip to India with his entire family, embarking on a four-day visit. Sources close to the matter revealed that during Vance's visit to India, he would discuss the US-India trade agreement with Modi while also arranging many "personalized" activities, such as visiting the Taj Mahal and attending Indian weddings.

As is well known, Vance's wife, Usha, is an American of Indian descent and a devout Hindu. During Vance's campaign, his wife was also packaged as the "US-India bridge," winning support from many Indian-American voters for Trump and Vance's collaborative team. It can be said that Vance deliberately created an image of being "down-to-earth and practical" by bringing his wife back to her hometown, clearly aiming to play the "emotional card."

In addition, Vance's timing for this visit was quite clever, coinciding with the intensification of the Chinese tariff war. This trip, described by American media as "family-style diplomacy," ostensibly strengthens US-India relations but actually has multiple strategic intentions. On one hand, after de facto "decoupling and breaking chains" with China, the US urgently needs to find alternative production bases, and India is seen by the US as the next "world factory."

Modi and Vance

On the other hand, Vance's visit to India is also seen by outsiders as laying the groundwork for Trump's visit to India later this year to attend the Quad Leaders' Summit on Security Dialogue. Its fundamental goal remains to contain China. The US and India are expected to sign a defense partnership framework this year, and India plans to purchase large amounts of US military equipment.

For India, Modi has been playing a balancing act between China and the US. Economically, Sino-Indian trade relations are close, and more than half of India's raw material imports depend on China. Completely tilting towards the US will lose strategic maneuvering room. However, India urgently needs investment from the US and hopes to obtain core technologies from the US.

Politically speaking, India wants to use the US to deter China but is wary of over-stimulating, which could worsen Sino-Indian relations. Additionally, Modi's BJP needs to maintain anti-China sentiment to consolidate support, but the business community strongly opposes decoupling from China. Therefore, how to balance between China and the US not only concerns Modi's personal political career but also relates to India's future development.

People from Usha's hometown celebrating Trump's re-election

However, although India seems to be skillfully managing both sides, it is walking on thin ice. On one hand, India's manufacturing level is insufficient; replacing China as the US's production base still requires a long time. On the other hand, India hopes to exchange market access for technology, but it has been met with rejection from the US. Tesla demands sole ownership of factories, and Apple refuses to transfer technology, leaving India as an assembly hub.

Notably, during Vance's visit to India, the South African president publicly urged "developing countries should not take sides," Indonesia suspended joint US-India military exercises, and Malaysia refused to join the "Chip Quartet Alliance." These signals indicate that developing countries' economic autonomy awareness is increasing. However, India clearly has its own plans.

Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong

According to Reuters, as part of the trade agreement, the Indian government is willing to cut tariffs on more than half of US-imported goods in exchange for US tariff exemptions. In response, China's ambassador to India issued a warning before Vance and Modi met, stating that compromising with the US would lead nowhere.

As a major developing country, India should have confidence in forging its own path and should work with China to oppose oppression and uphold multilateralism. Japan serves as a present example; appeasement only encourages the US to demand more. China has informed them of the worst-case scenario; whether or not they listen depends on Modi himself.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495633051049837083/

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