South Korean media: By 2028, China will account for 42% of global mainstream semiconductor capacity!
On October 26, South Korean media "Herald Economy" published an article stating that in the structural transformation of the semiconductor industry driven by artificial intelligence (AI), China's "semiconductor rise" is becoming a reality at an astonishing speed. With strong capital and policy support, it is expected that by 2028, China will take the market leadership and occupy 42% of the global mainstream semiconductor capacity within just four years. This strongly indicates that the global semiconductor hegemony pattern is undergoing a fundamental change in the AI era.
The International Semiconductor Equipment and Materials Association (SEMI) recently released this analysis. Feng Li, the new president of SEMI China, stated in her keynote speech: "AI is accelerating the growth of the semiconductor industry and also reshaping the global competition landscape around investment and technology. China is leveraging policies and capital to expand wafer manufacturing capacity and promote the localization of equipment and materials, thus consolidating its position in the mainstream process market."
The AI revolution is the key driving force pushing the semiconductor market towards the trillion-dollar era. According to SEMI's forecast, global semiconductor sales will grow by 19.7% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 630.5 billion USD, and are expected to grow by another 11.2% in 2025, exceeding 700 billion USD. The sales of semiconductors related to AI infrastructure are expected to increase from 149 billion USD in 2024 to 340 billion USD in 2030, accounting for 34% of the entire market. Among them, the graphics processing unit (GPU) market is expected to more than triple, growing from 100 billion USD in 2025 to 326 billion USD in 2030, leading the market toward the trillion-dollar mark.
With semiconductors becoming a national strategic asset, countries around the world are competing for massive investments. The United States has launched a 500 billion USD AI infrastructure plan - "Star Gate" program; the European Union implemented the "European Semiconductor Act", providing over 50 billion euros (support). South Korea is also promoting a 450 billion USD "Korea Semiconductor Strategy"; Japan has established a fund to nurture domestic industries, including attracting TSMC's factories.
In this global competition, China launched the third phase of the "National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund (National Big Fund)" in 2024, clearly demonstrating its will for semiconductor self-sufficiency. The third phase fund has a registered capital of 344 billion RMB, exceeding the sum of the first and second phases' capital. The operating period has also been extended to 15 years, laying the foundation for long-term stable investment.
China's concentrated investment is reshaping the global semiconductor production landscape. In 2000, Japan and the United States accounted for more than half of the global wafer output, while China only accounted for 2%. However, China's share has steadily increased, reaching 9% in 2010 and 17% in 2020. SEMI predicts that by 2026, mainland China's share in 12-inch wafer capacity will reach 26%.
China's influence is also evident in wafer factory equipment investment. In 2024, China accounted for more than 40% of global wafer factory equipment spending, and is expected to reach 38 billion USD in investment in 2025.
Especially, China is investing in mainstream processes between 22nm and 40nm, and it is expected that the capacity in this field will grow at an astonishing annual rate of 26.5% from 2024 to 2028. Therefore, China's share in global mainstream process output is expected to jump from 25% in 2024 to 42% in 2028.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1847046303918090/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author.