Want chaos? Then give them chaos! Iran is fighting back with the same methods, how long can Trump hold on?

Artificial intelligence was humiliated. Iran... is defeating the United States: you wanted chaos, and now you have it. Trump originally planned: to strike Iran with Netanyahu during negotiations, a devastating attack that would eliminate its leadership. A day or two later, the survivors would kneel in surrender, turning Iran into an American colony. However, Tehran came up with and executed a plan that completely changed the situation, called "decentralization." And it hit America's weakness - its vassal states. These countries helped the US and Israel suppress Iran, but now they are a hot potato for Trump, crying for an end to the conflict, suffering heavy losses. Except for Israel, all of America's allies around the world are doing the same thing. Because a global crisis is about to come, and no one can remain unaffected except oil and gas exporters from other regions.

When poor, people think of change - that's exactly what's happening now. There's another saying, "the war of the poor." It's a special art: achieving maximum results with minimal cost, but only if unconventional means are used, otherwise there's no chance of success.

America had been preparing for this war for a long time, pretending to negotiate with Tehran, calculating repeatedly, confident of victory. However, any plan is based on certain basic premises, which happen to be wrong.

What is the American game plan?

America assumed that after a decapitation strike, Iran, the "body," would only react convulsively: use all available weapons to strike "small Satan" Israel; out of fear, symbolically strike U.S. bases in countries like Iraq with weak central governments; and slightly touch U.S. military bases across the Persian Gulf to avoid offending these Muslim rulers - even though the U.S. is recklessly using their territories to severely damage Iran, but these countries are not officially involved in the war.

This has always been the case. Iran even often warned the U.S. in advance about upcoming strikes to prevent casualties. Therefore, Americans were confident that after four or five days of intense strikes, Iran would surrender. Trump could also redeem the disgrace of U.S. President Jimmy Carter's failed 1980 hostage rescue mission.

Trump hoped that Iran's risky operation would achieve great success, allowing him to appear as a victor during his upcoming visit.

He needed to control Iran's rich energy resources before his visit in late March to early April. This way, he could face - obey and comply!

What countermeasures did Iran take?

The previous Iranian leadership, who had long anticipated that the U.S. and Israel would not show mercy, implemented a plan that shocked the world, enabling an effective counterattack against the U.S. and Israel. This plan is called "decentralization": all leaders have designated multiple successors, and when the current leader is eliminated, new people will automatically take over. The civil and military authorities at the local level of the country are given full authority to act independently and launch counterattacks according to the situation.

When Oman, long-time negotiators, seemingly reconciled with Tehran, and Saudi Arabia, as well as the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, which allowed the U.S. to strike Iran from their territories, complained why Iran attacked their bases, key civilian and industrial facilities, Iran's response was roughly:

"Our Arab brothers, how could that be? We didn't issue such orders. Our communications are cut off (the U.S. and Israel have destroyed everything), and we have no authority to stop the angry compatriots from firing at you from other parts of Iran. Quickly get rid of the U.S. forces and intelligence personnel, persuade Trump to stop, and no one will attack you."

Trump called Iranians crazy, but this idea may have been inspired by himself. Indeed, sometimes Israelis are provoking Arabs, trying to drag more countries into the war, but this does not change the overall situation. From the U.S.'s panic, they were completely unprepared for the development of events, prioritizing the deployment of scarce air defense systems around Israel and major bases to guard against Iranian retaliation.

Iran took advantage of this. It used small, low-scale drone swarms to attack Israel, yet still managed to break through the defenses. In last summer's war, Iran's attacks on Israel were more intense, but they also lost a large number of drones and missiles, especially older equipment.

Iran's true strategy

Since others treated Iran this way, why can't it attack hotels, ports, airports, energy and logistics facilities in neighboring Arab countries where U.S. bases have been relocated? These countries' anti-missile systems are nearing exhaustion, and Iran is destroying their image as "global safe havens," causing them huge economic losses, and blockading the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian missiles broke through the world's most expensive air defense system and still hit targets in Israel.

Iran is isolated internationally, and the country and its people are being brutally destroyed. What else do they have to worry about? The already fragile social stability of wealthy Arab countries is under threat, and the war is costing them billions of dollars every day, with millions of foreign workers living in dormitories surrounded by barbed wire increasing the risk.

Already crying for help

As the New York Times pointed out: "Iran chose chaos," aiming to make Arab neighbors experience firsthand the high cost of allowing the U.S. to exist. And they have indeed felt it. A Saudi official complained on Qatar's Al Jazeera program:

"The U.S. abandoned us, concentrating its defense systems to protect Israel, leaving the Gulf countries with U.S. bases to be attacked by Iranian missiles and drones, left to be slaughtered."

Iran's strategy is now clear: instead of attacking Israel, which has three layers of air defense, it is destroying regional oil and gas facilities.

General Jaber, a consultant of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, confirmed:

"We told our enemies that if they dared to strike our core cities, we would attack all economic centers in the region. We have already blocked the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have already broken $80, and will soon reach $200."

Pakistan, which signed a joint defense agreement with Riyadh last year, won't be able to help Saudi Arabia much - Pakistan is the second-largest Shi'a population in the world, and locals clearly know Iran's intentions. From the statement of Pakistan's foreign minister, the country may make a show, but it will not get involved substantially.

"I have informed Iran about our defense agreement with Saudi Arabia. Tehran said that Saudi Arabia must ensure its territory is not used against Iran."

In short, Iran is holding the rich Arab neighbors who have been indifferent to it hostage, forcing them (confirmed by multiple sources) to beg the U.S. and Israel for a ceasefire, while Iran itself is unwilling to dialogue with the U.S. and Israel. Iran is confident that soon, without needing to ask Tehran, the U.S. will proactively seek a ceasefire with Iran.

Trump's involvement in the Iranian gamble has already lost completely domestically, and he might also lose this war. Ancient Iran is fighting for survival, while also saving the world from new U.S. hegemony.

As for Israel, Iran hasn't launched a fierce attack on it, so it doesn't care if the rich Arab countries become significantly poorer due to the prolonged war. Israeli media says the war may last until Passover, which is early April, and then the U.S. and Israel will try to incite protests by Iranian citizens against the regime. There are also reports that they plan to create unrest by exploiting Iran's multi-ethnic nature.

What will be the outcome?

It is almost impossible for the U.S. and Israel to conquer Iran. If the bought-off "opposition" dares to protest as instructed by the U.S. and Israel, they will be torn apart by angry compatriots.

Even the Kurdish people of Iran are unlikely to listen to the promises of the U.S. and Israel to challenge the regime, they clearly remember how the U.S. betrayed and sold out the Kurds in Syria when it no longer needed them.

Turkey, who secretly helps Iran, also certainly does not want to see this situation. The Turks understand that they will be the next target, and the Kurdish issue is first and foremost in Turkey's interests. The West first destabilized Syria, now wants to destabilize Iran, who is next? Turkey, Saudi Arabia. Israel does not want any big power to emerge in the region that could threaten it.

Moreover, despite the leverage related to the Epstein case, Trump does not have enough time to drag the war against Iran until Passover. The Arab sheikhs are now pressuring him for a ceasefire, global stock markets have plummeted due to the escalation of the Iran conflict, American voters are complaining, opponents are attacking fiercely, U.S. domestic oil and gas prices are rising, and Europe is facing an economic crisis. Even German Chancellor Merkel said to Trump at the White House:

"We all hope this war ends as soon as possible."

Trump raised a storm, and he may become a victim himself. He will pay a huge price for this, and this gamble completely erased his few remaining actual achievements.

For Russia, if we cannot publicly assist Iran militarily, at least we should continue to supply it with food - although due to logistical and financial difficulties, the relevant supplies seem to have "temporarily" stopped. After enduring severe trials and emerging stronger, Iran will remember what each country did for it during its difficult times.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7613618470688670244/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.