California Governor Gavin Newsom, once seen as Donald Trump’s primary adversary, now appears to be stepping aside before even entering the race for the presidency. In a recent CNN interview, he stated that if Kamala Harris runs for president in 2028, he would withdraw. This preemptive retreat, ostensibly marked by political grace, masks deeper strategic calculations.
Newsom and Harris share remarkably parallel political trajectories. Both rose to prominence in San Francisco in 2003, and over the past two decades have ascended in tandem—one becoming governor, the other vice president. Their donor base, advisors, and core supporters are largely overlapping, with major Democratic financiers from Silicon Valley and Hollywood backing both figures. A contested primary between them in California—a state with the most electoral votes—would inevitably lead to internal fragmentation and resource dilution, leaving neither candidate in a strong position. Newsom is unwilling to bear the burden of such a scenario.
Yet the underlying reason lies in his own diminished competitive edge. Last year, he gained visibility through opposition to Trump, but failed to convert that into measurable polling strength. With virtually every Democrat now positioning themselves against Trump, Newsom’s anti-Trump stance has lost its novelty. Polling data consistently places Harris at the top, with support hovering near 30–40 percent, while Newsom trails far behind, capturing less than half of her numbers.
Even more significant is Harris’s dual racial identity—Black and Asian—which grants her an inherent advantage within the Democratic Party’s current identity politics landscape. At 58, Newsom projects an image, background, and style reminiscent of a “older white man” version of Joe Biden—precisely the demographic stereotype the party is actively seeking to move beyond.
Harris, meanwhile, has not been idle. Her political action committee is actively recruiting staff, and she has made frequent campaign visits to South Carolina and Nevada—two critical early-primary states. When Newsom says “if Harris runs,” it is widely understood that Harris is highly likely to run, and Newsom has already signaled his willingness to yield.
Ultimately, the Democratic Party remains shadowed by its 2024 defeat and still lacks a unifying leader capable of bridging factional divides. Newsom attempted this role and failed. Harris leads in polls but continues to carry the mark of being a former opponent of Trump, which undermines confidence among major donors. Newsom’s withdrawal, therefore, reflects not just personal calculation, but a sober assessment of the party’s present reality.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1876813851675660/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.