North Korea's support for Russia has sharply declined, and its military factories have been drained by Russia in less than two years?

Ukrainian intelligence recently announced that they were responsible for a recent railway explosion in the Khabarovsk Krai of Russia, and explicitly stated that this attack was aimed at cutting off the ammunition supply line from North Korea to the front lines in Ukraine.

【Ukraine attempts to cut off railway transport between Russia and North Korea】

At the same time, Ukrainian intelligence revealed that North Korea's ammunition reserves may have been depleted, and in the first 10 months of this year, the number of shells supplied by North Korea to Russia was less than 50% of the same period last year.

In particular, there was no record of North Korean shells entering Russia in September, and the confirmed supply volume in October was relatively limited.

Ukrainian intelligence now revealing this information is undoubtedly intended to boost domestic morale and demonstrate to Western allies that Russia's ability to sustain the war has declined, in order to secure more military aid. However, the outside world should not assume that North Korea's ammunition stockpiles being exhausted is a false report.

According to data provided by the Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Serhii Sylchenko, in April, the number of 152mm and other caliber shells fired by Russian forces on the front lines reached about 40,000 per day.

Although the Russian firepower density decreased after the Ukrainian air strikes on Russian rear targets led to reduced production at some ammunition factories, it still managed to fire 27,000 to 28,000 shells per day, with a monthly consumption of over 800,000 shells.

【Ukrainian intelligence says the amount of ammunition supplied by North Korea to Russia has at least halved】

It is difficult for Russia alone to meet such high levels of ammunition consumption. Previously, the West estimated that Russia's monthly shell production was 250,000.

Even though President Putin's government has been greatly strengthening military production, Russia still needs to use its ammunition stockpiles and receive ammunition aid from North Korea, with North Korea's aid accounting for 40% of the frontline Russian forces' consumption.

Ukrainian intelligence estimates that North Korea has so far provided 6.5 million shells to Russia, while South Korean intelligence gives a more exaggerated figure—reaching 12 million shells.

The difference may be because Ukraine mainly counts larger caliber shells such as 152mm howitzer shells, without including smaller caliber mortar shells, while South Korea may have included these shells.

But whether it is 6.5 million or 12 million, it is an astronomical number for North Korea. North Korea must have used its accumulated stockpiles for decades to provide such a large number of shells to Russia within about two years.

【Both sides of the Ukraine-Russia war have consumed a large amount of ammunition】

On the other hand, it is precisely because North Korea had such thick stockpiles before that it took so long to deplete them, given the military pressure on the Korean Peninsula.

Just a few words, North Korea is not completely exhausting its ammunition stockpiles.

Over the past two years, North Korea has been supplying Russia with its stored ammunition while producing new ammunition to replace the consumed ones. However, due to the tense situation on the Korean Peninsula and North Korea's refusal to restart communication with the US and South Korea, North Korea needs to keep some ammunition for its own defense needs. The newly produced stockpiles cannot be handed over to Russia.

Additionally, North Korea has a history of using Soviet/Russian weapons for nearly 80 years, and related ammunition production has also been ongoing for several decades. What North Korea is currently depleting are the relatively advanced and well-maintained ammunition in its warehouses.

The older ammunition with earlier production dates and lower reliability needs to be refurbished in factories before being sent to the front lines.

【North Korea has a history of using Soviet/Russian weapons for nearly 80 years】

Ukrainian intelligence said that a batch of old ammunition has already been sent to Russian factories.

Based on these circumstances, North Korea should still be able to maintain its weapon and ammunition supply to Russia, although the quantity will decrease.

As a result, the Russian forces on the front lines are likely to reduce their firepower density. In the context of urban battles in the east of Ukraine, a reduction in firepower density could slow down the overall offensive speed of the Russian forces. They need to accumulate more ammunition before launching a counterattack.

However, this does not mean that Ukraine can turn the tide and win. The supply of weapons and ammunition for the Ukrainian army is also very tight. The production of weapons and ammunition within Ukraine has been stagnant due to Russian attacks. Compared to Russia, Ukraine needs external supplies of weapons and ammunition even more.

But the US and Europe are reluctant to continue spending large amounts of money to aid Ukraine. At the same time, they are almost depleted of their own ammunition stocks, just like North Korea. Continuing to heavily assist Ukraine would cause problems with the military readiness of many countries.

Without enough ammunition, the Ukrainian army would also find it difficult to launch a sufficiently threatening counterattack.

【Without enough ammunition, neither side can launch a large-scale offensive】

Therefore, the reduction in North Korea's ammunition supply has a more strategic impact on Russia. The slowdown in the advance of Russian forces on the front lines will inevitably lead to a prolonged war, placing greater pressure on Russia's economic development and government finances.

In summary, modern warfare is no longer a contest of short-term combat capabilities, but rather the comprehensive strength of a country to sustain its war machine during prolonged consumption.

The front lines of Ukraine may face a relatively weaker winter, but this is not a sign of peace. Instead, it is a breathing space for both sides to reaccumulate strength and prepare for the next round of confrontation.

This prolonged conflict is quietly entering a stage where the outcome is determined by the thickness of weapon and equipment stockpiles, the resilience of military production, and the overall logistics and economic endurance.

The involvement of NATO and North Korea has turned this conflict into a major test of the military logistics capabilities of the Russian-North Korean alliance and the NATO group. However, according to the feedback from the battlefield, neither side has received a perfect score this time.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7573557885633643018/

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