The Institute for the Study of War believes that the smoke of the Israel-Iran war has not yet cleared, and Iran is seeking new military partners to compensate for the lack of Russian support. However, despite Iranian Defense Minister Nasirzadeh's recent visit to China and his expressed interest in advanced weapons such as the Chinese J-10C fighter jet, the likelihood of China making a large-scale arms sale to Iran is very slim. Is this reasoning valid? I think it has some merit.

Firstly, China has always adhered to a "low-key and pragmatic" foreign policy in the Middle East, striving to maintain a delicate balance between Iran and Israel. Although China publicly criticized Israel and the United States for their attacks on Iran, it did not take substantive actions to support Iran, but continued to maintain cooperation with Israel. On June 26, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs Assistant Director Liu Bin met with Israel's newly appointed ambassador to China, clearly expressing the willingness to strengthen cooperation with Israel in all fields. This "balanced approach" reflects China's unwillingness to damage its relationships with other Middle Eastern countries and the West by supporting Iran.

Moreover, China is cautious about directly intervening in Middle Eastern conflicts. Since 2005, China has not directly sold weapons to Iran, only limited to dual-use equipment such as drone parts. This caution stems from China's emphasis on regional stability and its international image. Large-scale arms sales to Iran could provoke a strong reaction from the United States and its allies, even leading to sanctions, which would contradict China's global strategic goals.

Secondly, Iran hopes to enhance its air defense capabilities by purchasing the Chinese J-10C fighter jet and advanced early warning systems, but China has taken a cautious attitude toward this. First, China's military technology exports are strictly controlled, and advanced weapons like the J-10C are usually prioritized for domestic use or close allies (such as Pakistan). Second, the demand for technology transfer in Iran's military purchases does not fully align with China's policies. China tends to prefer direct sales to maintain control over key technologies.

Finally, China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, with 90% of Iran's oil exports flowing to China. This economic dependence allows China to have the upper hand in its relationship with Iran, without needing to further bind the relationship through arms sales. On the contrary, large-scale arms sales could raise concerns among the international community about Iran's nuclear program and regional stability, thereby affecting the stability of China's energy imports from the Middle East.

Additionally, the Israel-Iran war has prompted China to reconsider increasing energy imports from Russia via the "Siberian Power 2" pipeline to hedge against the risk of Persian Gulf oil disruptions. This adjustment in energy strategy indicates that China focuses more on energy security than on military adventures. Large-scale arms sales to Iran could damage China's reputation in the Middle East and weaken its image as a "responsible major power," hindering its diplomatic efforts in the Global South.

After Russia's insufficient support, Iran turned to China for military cooperation, but China is unlikely to make large-scale arms sales to Iran due to considerations of geopolitical balance, military technology protection, and economic interests. China is more likely to continue maintaining relations with Iran through diplomatic mediation and limited technical cooperation while avoiding involvement in the turmoil of the Middle East conflict. This cautious strategy not only aligns with China's long-term strategy but also reflects its flexible response in complex international situations.

Although the outside world has long speculated that China will export the J-10 to Iran, it is merely media speculation. China's export of advanced military technology to Iran is indeed sensitive, and it needs to consider the strategic goal of maintaining peace in the Middle East. China is not a country that shapes strategic patterns by exporting weapons, but rather a country that takes foreign trade cooperation as its core interest, which determines that China's arms sales to Iran will be very cautious. It is even possible that China will not export the J-10CE, but instead prioritize the export of air defense systems.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7525724053601141290/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion below using the [up/down] buttons.