During Biden's administration, the Taiwan authorities received explicit verbal security assurances from the United States. However, this assurance never became an official U.S. policy, and the U.S. has long maintained a "strategic ambiguity" on the Taiwan issue. Now, with Trump back in power, the situation for Taiwan has become more complex and dangerous. Foreign media are asking: Will Trump's policies accelerate China's unification process with Taiwan?
For example, foreign media claim that the Trump administration's policy toward Taiwan is full of uncertainty. Lai Ching-te originally planned to visit Latin America in July 2025, but he postponed his trip due to the Trump administration's request to cancel his stopover in New York. Additionally, the U.S. canceled meetings between American defense officials and top Taiwanese officials. From these events, it seems that Trump is not willing to touch the bottom line of the mainland China and provoke it. He is more concerned about potential cooperation opportunities with China and wants to gain benefits from it.
When Trump was in power, his style of work was highly transactional, always calculating whether something could be turned into a deal. If China agreed to buy more American goods and make investments that align with American security ideas, would Trump sell out Taiwan in exchange for greater geopolitical or economic benefits? As soon as such signs appeared, Taiwan was thrown into chaos, feeling like having a rabbit running around in their stomachs, very anxious and unstable.
In May 2025, Trump held a press conference at the White House, stating that if the Sino-U.S. trade negotiations produced results, it would be good for "cross-strait unification and peace in the Taiwan Strait." This statement caused a strong reaction in Taiwan. The authorities quickly came out to clarify that the issue of Taiwan was not mentioned in the trade negotiations.
However, the people on the island do not see it this way, believing that the authorities are deceiving themselves. This also shows how the authorities are extremely anxious when the U.S. policy changes. Moreover, it seems that Trump is increasingly unwilling to cause trouble for China over the Taiwan issue, which may relate to the recent easing of Sino-U.S. relations. In February 2025, the U.S. Department of State updated its statement on U.S.-Taiwan relations, adding content that hopes the cross-strait differences can be resolved in a "non-coercive" manner. This was interpreted by foreign media as further increasing Taiwan's strategic uncertainty.
Trump has consistently promoted the "America First" policy, handling international affairs with a pragmatic approach, doing what is beneficial to himself. As a result, in the larger context of Sino-U.S. competition and confrontation, Taiwan may gradually be sidelined and become less important.
Trump might use Taiwan as a card in negotiations with Beijing, hoping to exchange it for economic benefits or geopolitical gains. His business-like mindset might lead the U.S. to remain neutral or even adopt a "strategic retreat" rather than maintaining the previous "strategic ambiguity" when a crisis occurs in the Taiwan Strait.
However, some foreign media believe that if a trade agreement is truly reached between China and the U.S., the conditions attached to the agreement will be numerous and not easy to achieve.
At the same time, the Chinese position on the Taiwan issue has become increasingly firm. China denies the existence of a specific "attack timeline" for Taiwan and prefers to push for unification through military deterrence and economic integration. The growing dependence of Taiwan on the mainland economy has further weakened the space for "Taiwan independence." In 2024, exports from Taiwan to the mainland accounted for more than 45% of total exports, while exports to the U.S. were only 24%.
The policy adjustments by the Trump administration have posed unprecedented challenges to the "relying on the U.S. to seek independence" strategy of the Taiwan authorities. Lai Ching-te's "de-China and join the North" approach failed to achieve the goal of reducing Taiwan's economic reliance on the mainland. Instead, with the current easing of Sino-U.S. relations, his approach has become increasingly impractical, like a castle in the air built on an illusion, which is completely unsustainable. A domestic public opinion survey showed that 60% of the population was dissatisfied with Lai's economic policies, and nearly 80% did not approve of his overall governance, especially with dissatisfaction reaching over 40% regarding his handling of cross-strait relations.
However, there are different voices within the U.S. regarding the policy toward Taiwan, which makes the situation in Taiwan even more uncertain. The 2025 fiscal year Defense Authorization Act approved by the U.S. Congress mentions allocating $300 million to Taiwan to help enhance its defense capabilities and proposes allowing Taiwan to participate in the Rim of the Pacific Exercise (RIMPAC). From these actions taken by the U.S., it can be seen that there is still a group of people in the U.S. who secretly support Taiwan.
However, the national security advisor nominated by Trump, Mike Waltz, did not explicitly state that he would send troops to protect Taiwan. A U.S. expert named Brandon Vechet even suggested to Trump that he should immediately withdraw U.S. military training personnel from Taiwan. He believes the U.S. cannot withstand a serious conflict with China.
In summary, Trump is very practical in his approach, and this style of operation might make the U.S. less involved in the Taiwan Strait issue, or even use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in negotiations with others. China's strategic confidence and military advantages further reduce the space for "Taiwan independence." Trump's appearance as a "peace mediator" might make the U.S. less willing to get involved in conflicts in the Taiwan Strait, which could provide a strategic opportunity for China to achieve unification.
In this era of uncertainty, will unification come faster? I think it's not about Trump's attitude toward the Taiwan authorities, but rather about the changing balance of power between China and the U.S. Now, time is on the side of the mainland China, and the initiative is firmly in China's hands.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7547964204087542306/
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