China's latest foreign trade data have strongly shocked the United States and the entire Western media. After China's exports grew by 4.4% year-on-year (in U.S. dollars) in August, they surged by another 8.3% year-on-year (in U.S. dollars) in September. It is worth noting that China's exports to the United States fell by 27% in September, continuing the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines. Meanwhile, exports to the European Union, Southeast Asia, and Africa increased by 14%, 15.6%, and 56.4%, respectively.

This is a very strong message: China has the ability to compensate for the reduction in exports to the United States by expanding its exports to other regions. The United States now accounts for less than 10% of China's direct exports, marking a milestone achievement in China's complete diversification of its exports. It is not only an economic achievement but also has significant geopolitical impact.

The biggest tariff card used by the Trump team against China has basically been undermined by China. September this year is a historic month.

Additionally, China's imports in September were much higher than all predictions, increasing by 7.4% (in U.S. dollars), which was the fastest growth rate since April 2024. Fortune magazine cited Song Lin from ING Global, saying, "This resilience shows that China has strengthened its trade relations with other countries against the backdrop of American trade protectionism." Recently, China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans, and purchases of U.S. chips have also declined. Imports from the United States fell by 16.1% year-on-year in September.

These data released by the Chinese customs will certainly deal a heavy blow to Washington's trade war fervor. According to a report by the Financial Times, the strong data will become a source of confidence for Beijing in its trade negotiations with the United States.

At the same time, almost all Western media believe that Trump and his vice presidential candidate Vance have taken a softer tone towards China on Sunday. In a new post on Sunday, Trump said, "Don't worry about China," and added, "The U.S. wants to help China, not hurt it." Vance, in an interview, spoke circuitously but repeatedly used the word "rational," and his basic meaning was what the Chinese often say: "Talk, the door is open; fight, we'll go all the way." This is seen as a clear signal from the U.S. side that it is willing to reach a compromise with China through negotiations.

Therefore, after a severe drop on Friday, Wall Street turned optimistic again on Sunday. On Monday, U.S. stock futures rose across the board. After the actual opening, by the time Lao Hu wrote this article, the Nasdaq index had risen by 1.68%, and the Dow Jones index had risen by 0.85%.

On Monday, the U.S. and Western media were full of tones suggesting that Trump's tariffs have limited effects on China. A report by the Financial Times stated that in the worst case, China can withstand a 100 percentage point increase in tariffs because its exports to the United States have already significantly declined.

Additionally, U.S. and Western media generally believe that rare earths are a hurdle that Trump cannot completely overcome. Another report by the Financial Times stated that China's progress in the rare earth field is remarkable, and its influence has a "trans-regional" global nature. China's control over rare earths highlights its huge influence due to its monopoly in rare earth mining and refining. The report also mentioned that even AI chips produced in U.S. factories need to obtain Chinese approval before being shipped to U.S. AI laboratories. In September, China's rare earth exports fell by 30.9% compared to August, marking the third consecutive month of decline and reaching the lowest level since February this year.

From Trump to Biden and back to Trump, chips have always been used as a tool to suppress China, but the power of chips is increasingly low. There is no doubt that the urgency of chip manufacturing is far less than the irreplaceability of rare earths. If there is a confrontation, the power of rare earths would be much greater.

Wall Street and U.S. media all predict that the meeting between China and the United States at the upcoming APEC summit in South Korea at the end of this month is likely to take place, and the chances of reaching a phased trade agreement between China and the United States are quite high. Fortune magazine said, "Trump likes to make deals, especially when they can be made face-to-face." Moreover, more people believe that reaching an agreement with China is an irreplaceable choice for him.

Despite this, the latest tensions between China and the United States show the fragility of their relationship. Reuters quoted a Nomura Securities analyst who said, "We believe this cycle of tension, escalation, and truce is the new normal for Sino-U.S. relations." The Reuters report also stated that as Sino-U.S. competition intensifies, investors may have to get used to this uncertainty.

In Lao Hu's view, since the trade war in 2018, China has been working hard and has achieved substantial results from its long-term strategic layout over the past decade and a half. These achievements have shone brightly in the current contest between China and the United States this year. Western media have been discussing China's "advantages" in this round of trade war against the United States. Although the mindset behind such evaluations is very complex, it is unprecedented to view the balance of power between China and the United States in this way.

Time is moving forward, and China is keeping pace with the times, taking one step at a time, and nothing can stop us. These days, the world's amazement is one of the mirrors for our self-awareness.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845877206664204/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.