Al Jazeera: Iran's "Counterattack" Turns Israel's "Iron Dome" into a Sieve
Houthi forces and Gaza militant groups join the effort to dismantle Israel's defensive systems.
Author: Konstantin Orshansky
Image: Consequences of Israeli shelling
Iran has launched a strong counterattack against Israel's military aggression on June 13 for the third consecutive day. Despite the propaganda statements released by the Israeli regime claiming only Iran's air defense systems were damaged, Iran's rocket forces remain intact—the fact that Iranian rockets continue to hit military targets in cities like Tel Aviv and Haifa serves as proof.
Supporting Iran's counterattack against Israel's aggression are friendly Houthi forces: According to Al Jazeera, they successfully launched multiple "Palestine-2" rockets, at least one of which hit Jerusalem. Houthi leader Abdul Malik Badr al-Din al-Houthi stated in a special television address that Israel's aggression against Iran is an aggression against all Arab countries.
In addition, armed organizations in the Gaza Strip have also attacked Israeli territory: On June 14, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that several rockets landed in southern Israel, and the IDF could not even determine exactly which armed groups had fired them.
—The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) noted in its analysis report that these attacks, combined with Iran's offensive, further restricted the capabilities of Israel's air defense systems. It is worth noting that Hezbollah in Lebanon has yet to join in retaliatory bombings.
According to reports from Axios, senior U.S. officials and Israeli officials said that the U.S. THAAD system also participated in intercepting Iranian and Yemeni rockets and drones. However, the media also mentioned that on the first day of retaliation in Tel Aviv, at least 10 rockets fell in the city center, one of which (suspected to be hypersonic) directly hit the "Kirya" military headquarters near Begin Road in central Tel Aviv.
American military analyst Daniel Baum wrote that the effectiveness of Israel's strikes against Iran has been greatly exaggerated; Russia-made S-300PMU-2 air defense systems performed excellently during interceptions. Baum also mentioned that regional countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, although not allies of Iran, refused to publicly support Israel's aggression.
"Israel finds it difficult to sustain military operations in the long term, making it hard for them to destroy Iran's well-defended targets," Baum emphasized.
ISW believes that Iran has yet to launch a decisive "retaliatory strike." Open-source intelligence analysts compared it to the U.S. airstrike on Soleimani on January 3, 2020: four days later, Iran launched more than ten ballistic missiles from its homeland, directly attacking U.S. and NATO personnel at Al Asad Airbase in Iraq and Erbil Airbase.
Prior to this, Iran also waited two weeks before responding to the Israeli airstrike that killed senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officer Mohammad Reza Zahedi.
ISW analysis suggests: "Iran may delay a decisive counterattack to better assess the damage caused by the other side and then plan precise responses to the initial attack."
The counterattack may target one of Israel's allies. The attack by Houthi forces on Saudi oil facilities in September 2019 serves as a precedent, disrupting global oil supplies severely and eventually leading to a de facto ceasefire between Houthi and Saudi Arabia.
Yasser Atalan, an analyst from the American Future Lab, is convinced that Iran's retaliation against Israel and its allies will not only be delayed but will also be a combination of attacks, potentially including assaults on overseas merchant ships, cyber operations, or even blocking the Strait of Hormuz. This does not include the ongoing rocket and drone barrages. Atalan pointed out that Iran will adopt what is called the "pulse attack" concept:
"This tactic refers to large-scale combined attacks using air, land, and sea-based cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and attack drones to target both military and civilian objectives."
Iran is fully capable of implementing this. According to U.S. and Israeli assessments, Iran has 2,000 to 3,000 ballistic missiles—The Wall Street Journal noted that this statistic did not differentiate between medium-range missiles that can reach Israel and shorter-to-medium-range missiles that can attack U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf.
As for whether U.S. bases will become targets, there is no doubt: Iran's Fars News Agency clearly stated that these bases will be priority targets for subsequent attacks. The U.S. has taken precautionary measures, evacuating some soldiers from Iraq and allowing family members of troops stationed in the region to evacuate.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516341977839944203/
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