After being attacked by Israel, Iran's weak response was disappointing, and the criticism that followed was all about "cowardice".
As a firm opponent of Israeli fascism, I also disapprove of Iran's "cowardice".
Although many people think Iran is "cowardly", my view is completely different from theirs, and this must be clarified.
Some believe that Iran's "cowardice" is similar to that of the Qing Dynasty, as the ruling clerical group's opposition to the majority of Iranian citizens and ethnic minorities leads to their policy of "stabilizing internally before stabilizing externally".
I strongly oppose this view and even suspect it may be part of an Israeli cognitive operation.
Aware of this issue, when I wrote the article "The Fascist Israel Is Running on the Path to Destruction" on June 13th, I analyzed Iran's considerations and revealed the reasons for their "cowardice".
After this article was published the next day, due to low traffic and limited reach, its impact was not significant.
I noticed that many people were still unintentionally helping spread false views about Israeli fascism, so I decided to write another article to discuss why Iran is "cowardly".
Iran's "cowardice" is not a choice made by a few individuals to stabilize their regime, but rather a result of strategic misjudgment.
In today's world, we are at a critical juncture in a once-in-a-century major transformation, akin to the period before World War I and II.
With the adjustment and reorganization of the international order, large-scale wars are inevitable and are the main course of this transformation.
There are countless historical experiences and lessons to learn from, and no country wants to be the first to step forward in such a transformation.
The first ones on the scene are often cannon fodder. Even if they are not cannon fodder, they will suffer heavy losses in the end.
Look at Britain, the Soviet Union, France, Germany, and Italy during World War II; none of them had a good time.
Only the United States, which entered the war last, became the biggest beneficiary of World War II.
If I can see through these things, then the ruling group of Iran must also understand.
That's why, when faced with relentless pressure from the U.S., the West, and Israel, they keep retreating.
We think Iran is "cowardly", but they might consider themselves to be playing the "big game", waiting for an important opportunity window.
This opportunity window might be when China and the U.S. clash.
Anyone with eyes can see that the decisive force in today's world is between China and the U.S., and structural contradictions make conflict imminent.
Previously, there was something I didn't fully understand: Why didn't Putin send troops to take over Ukraine when Yanukovych was pressured, instead waiting until 8 years later when he was cornered, resulting in losing a tooth to the newly armed Ukraine?
Now I understand; Putin was also waiting for the right moment, which is why he endured that humiliation.
During World War II, Britain and France adopted an appeasement policy towards Germany, hoping to direct the conflict eastward, allowing Germany and the Soviet Union to fight each other while they reaped the benefits.
In contrast, the Soviet Union signed the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact with Nazi Germany, aiming to let Germany and Britain/France engage first.
All these great powers in the international community are cunning and experienced.
When a situation like that before World War II arises again, neither Russia nor Iran would want others to start fighting first.
Presenting this viewpoint does not mean Russia or Iran are particularly cunning; the U.S., Japan, European countries, and even China are the same.
The U.S. is so eager to destroy China, yet why does it always insist on setting up a "safety fence" with China?
Every time China cuts off communication with the U.S. military, they become very anxious.
Why? Because Washington knows that provocations by the U.S. military near China could easily lead to war, and they don't want a military conflict with China.
China is no different; it has been skillfully controlling the situation, engaging in conflict without breaking ties.
However, in the Asia-Pacific region, if war breaks out, the advantage lies with China, and China isn't急于 giving the U.S. a "safety fence".
Understanding this doesn't mean war won't come knocking; the method is key.
The appeasement policy adopted by the Allied forces before World War II led to the rise of Nazi Germany, eventually backfiring on them.
The Soviet Union was also in the same predicament; despite not wanting to fight Germany, war still came knocking.
The clever nations of Britain, France, and the Soviet Union were all misled by their own cleverness when competing for concessions with Germany.
The same applies now; Putin avoided war only to be forced into it, and the same goes for Iran.
Even now, Iran is still trying to avoid war.
President Peymane Jafari has clearly stated on multiple occasions that if Israel continues its attacks, they will not negotiate with the U.S. and will retaliate strongly.
Behind the tough rhetoric lies a big message: "I don't want to fight!"
Iran's "cowardice" is a strategic choice made by its ruling group, believing they have deciphered the code of international politics, and not due to the minority ruling the majority like the late Qing Dynasty.
The ruling group of Iran doesn't realize that avoiding war requires both method and strength.
The method to avoid war has never been compromise but struggle.
Iran's avoidance of war is a result of insufficient courage and strength intertwined due to a strategic misjudgment.
Lack of courage makes them always hope to improve relations with the U.S. and the West through compromises to avoid imminent war.
Lack of strength makes them increasingly lack the courage to fight against evil enemies.
Reading the history of World War II, Iran still hasn't understood it clearly.
When a large-scale war breaks out, although the last one down will benefit the most, those who dare to fight, know how to fight, and win the fight will also benefit greatly.
The Soviet Union is the best example; what was once a second-rate power rose to become a superpower after paying a huge price to win the war and standing up to the U.S.
If Iran fights Israel with an uncompromising stance, both the U.S. and Israel will face headaches.
Think about it, America's main strategic rival is China; how dare it get stuck in the Middle East for too long?
Trump abandoned Israel and went to the negotiation table after less than half a year of low-intensity warfare with the Houthi rebels.
I don't believe Iran's ability to withstand blows and counterattack is inferior to the Houthis.
General Su Yu, known as the "God of War" of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, once said: "The most effective way is to win a great victory."
If Iran shows the resolve of the Houthis in the war against Israel, it is highly likely to succeed.
I have discussed this issue in previous articles and will not repeat it here.
Once victorious, all of Iran's problems can be solved.
Firstly, daring to resist American hegemony and Israeli fascism will earn Iran immense international prestige.
Don't underestimate this international prestige; it looks intangible but is very practical.
This makes Iran more valuable, and I believe China and Russia will offer better terms because of it.
How did China become one of the three major powers? By daring to confront the U.S. and the Soviet Union and winning that confrontation.
Becoming one of the three major powers, the price the U.S. offers to court China cannot be compared to courting ordinary countries.
Secondly, gaining leverage in negotiations with the U.S. and the West, securing things Iran has long desired but failed to obtain.
Forcing the U.S. and Israel to the negotiating table gives Iran the initiative to set terms.
I don't find it difficult to lift sanctions without harming Iran's interests.
Even the long-desired improvement of relations with the U.S. and the West is not impossible.
Thirdly, domestic accumulated contradictions will be vented and alleviated due to this victory.
Decades of sanctions have left Iran's economy gasping for breath, accumulating many contradictions and grievances in society.
At the same time, the domestic pro-American and anti-American factions exert pressure on each other, causing Iran's policies to change frequently, lacking long-term momentum.
A victory will establish enormous credibility for the ruling group of Iran, thereby uniting the broad masses effectively.
In the end, Iran's "cowardice" stems from its "cleverness", thinking itself too smart.
Despite its limitations, Iran has the potential to be the master of its own destiny.
With proper strategy, it can wage a people's war against Israeli fascism in the Middle East and seize control of its fate through victory.
What is most regrettable is that the ruling group of Iran, in order to ease relations with the U.S. and the West, has abandoned the decades-old "Shia Crescent" card.
If the "Shia Crescent" still existed, Iran wouldn't be suffering such a severe beating from Israel today.
If they don't learn from this lesson and continue to appease and indulge Israeli fascism, I believe no one can save Iran.
People must save themselves before heaven can save them; if you don't save yourself, how can anyone else possibly do it for you?
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516184070716408361/
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